by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:

As the FOMC meets over the next two days, the markets look to Fed Chairman Powell and ask: “What’s it gonna be boy? Yes or no?” And whichever answer Powell provides on Wednesday via his fedlines and press conference will likely determine where precious metal prices head as we move toward month- and quarter-end.

So, what will it be? Yes to taper, or another kick of the can? As I type on Tuesday morning, it’s almost impossible to guess the outcome, simply because the Fed has given so many conflicting answers and clues over the past few weeks.

First, we must consider the overall feasibility of tapering the Fed’s involvement in supporting the bond market. If the Fed’s $80B/month in debt monetization is removed from the bond market, from where will buyers emerge to replace them? If no buyers emerge, then how far will rates have to rise in order to attract the buyers necessary to keep treasury auctions from failing? Would the yield in the 10-year note have to rise to 3%? Maybe 4%. Maybe even higher? The U.S. simply cannot afford these levels of nominal rates, so the notion that the Fed can withdraw from the bond market at this point seems silly on its face.