Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”

by Mark O’Byrne, GoldCore:

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession

– Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle?
– 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession
– Total global debt at all time high – see chart
– Global debt is 327{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} of world GDP – ticking timebomb…
– Gold has beaten the market (S&P 500) so far this century
– Safe haven demand to increase on debt and equity risk
– Gold looks very cheap compared to overbought markets
– Important to diversify into safe haven gold now

 

by Frank Holmes via Gold.org

Global debt levels have reached unprecedented levels, pension deficits are rising and the US interest rate cycle is on the turn. Frank Holmes, chief executive of highly regarded investment management group US Global Investors, believes that investing in gold is a logical response to current, unnerving conditions.

For centuries, investors and savers have depended on gold in times of economic and political strife, and its investment case right now is as compelling as it’s ever been.

Read More @ goldcore.com

One Full Year of COMEX EFPs-Craig Hemke (27/11/2018)

by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:

It has now been one full year since we began to monitor the daily totals of COMEX EFPs. The total amount of gold allegedly “exchanged for physical” over the past twelve months will astound you.

Again, at Eric Sprott’s urging, last November 24 we began to tabulate the daily reported EFPs in COMEX gold. We’ve since written about this ongoing sham on three occasions, with all three links listed below:

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/COMEX-exchanges-f…

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/comex-efp-use-con…

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/more-on-comex-exc…

GOLD CONFISCATION AND MANIPULATION

by Egon Von Greyerz, Gold Switzerland:

Owning gold is life insurance and wealth preservation. Anyone who has lived through hyperinflationary periods in the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, Argentina or Venezuela understands the importance of gold. But it is not enough just to own gold or silver. It is also extremely important how you hold it and where you hold it. We have just seen another example how governments unilaterally “confiscate” gold.

Global Currency Reserve at Risk – Jim Willie

by Jim Willie, Gold Seek:
Within the US borders, the population remains largely ignorant of the true significance of the global currency reserve concept. It is of paramount importance, yet almost never discussed in the financial press. The public within the United States simply assumes the country operates with the USDollar as its currency, with near blindness to its global role in trade and banking. The end of an era is coming, as the change will be powerful in its effect. The shock wave could hit this year in some form, in a manner to highlight its importance.

SILVER ALSO HAS A STELLAR DAY UP 74 CENTS

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

GOLD BREAKS THROUGH $1500 TO END THE COMEX SESSION UP $31.00 TO $1503//SILVER ALSO HAS A STELLAR DAY UP 74 CENTS//CHINA THREATENS REVERSE SANCTIONS IF INDIA DOES NOT USE HUAWEI PRODUCTS//TREASURY YIELDS PLUMMET/THE ENTIRE USA YIELD CURVE INVERTED

TWO HUGE WHACKS ON GOLD AND SILVER TODAY BUT OUR PRECIOUS METALS ARE STILL RESILIENT: GOLD DOWN ONLY $2.15 AND SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

GREECE HIT WITH A HUGE INFLUX OF MIGRANTS FROM TURKEY/ISRAEL WARNS PUTIN THAT IRAN MUST LEAVE SYRIA OR ELSE THEY WILL ATTACK/TRUMP WANTS HIS WALL: IF NOT HE WILL SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT/CITY OF HARTFORD WILL LIKELY FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION

GOLD: $1286.85  DOW $2.15

Silver: $16.98  DOWN 9 CENTS

Closing access prices:

Gold $1290.40

silver: $17.08

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1294.05 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1287.80

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $6.25

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1293.21

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.60

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$3.61

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1285.90

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1286.20

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1289.00

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1289.10

For comex gold:

AUGUST/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  NIL  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 4584 FOR 458,400 OZ  (14.258 TONNES)

For silver:

AUGUST

 

 28 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

 

140,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1132 for 5,600,000 oz

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end

 

As I have mentioned we are in options expiry week and you should expect pressure on gold/silver for the next 6 trading days. Today, the bankers twice repelled gold/silver’s advance as they try and keep gold under $1300 and silver under $17.00. The USA has only $82. billion left in the kitty with a burn rate of around 3 billion per day. David Stockman believes that there is little chance for a clean rise in the debt ceiling without huge concessions to Democrats. This article is a must read..

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE by A HUGE 4,889 contracts from 187,227 UP TO 192,116 DESPITE THE TINY RISE IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK WITH  YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP 9 CENTS). NO DOUBT THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE WITH TRUMP THREATENING THAT HE WANTS HIS WALL OR HE WILL SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT CAUSED MANY TO ENTER THE PRECIOUS METALS ARENA.  THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER WITH THE NEWBIE SPECS ENTERING THE ARENA WITH RECKLESS ABANDON… SOME OLDER SPECS EXITED WITH A PROFIT.YESTERDAY,  THE BANKERS WERE TELEGRAPHING A RAID THIS MORNING (SILVER SUBDUED IN PRICE COMPARED TO GOLD) WHICH FAILED AGAIN.  THE BANKERS ARE GETTING QUITE NERVOUS WITH THEIR CONTINUED FAILED ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL THE PRECIOUS METALS ARENA.   

RESULT: A MUCH HIGHER OI WITH A SLIGHT PRICE INCREASE.

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.966 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 138{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 28 NOTICE(S) FOR 140,000OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 5,784 CONTRACTS WITH THE RISE  in price of gold ($3.35 GAIN  YESTERDAY .). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 506,227.

AS IN SILVER, THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE WITH TRUMP THREATENING TO CLOSE GOVERNMENT IF HE DID NOT GET HIS WALL HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPECS ENTER THE GOLD ARENA WITH THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER. SOME OLD SPECS SOLD FOR A PROFIT, THINKING THAT THE PRECIOUS METALS WILL ALWAYS LOWER IN PRICE DURING OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK.

Result: A HUGE GAIN IN OI with A RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, no changes in gold inventory:

Inventory rests tonight: 799.29 tonnes

IN THE LAST 29 TRADING DAYS: GLD SHEDS 37.68 TONNES YET GOLD IS HIGHER BY $54.35 .

SLV

Today:  WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.229 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

 

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver RISE BY 4,889 contracts from 187,227 UP TO 192,116 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH YESTERDAY’S 9 CENT GAIN IN TRADING. SILVER RESPONDED TO THE GEOPOLITICAL CLIMATE WHEREBY TRUMP THREATENED TO SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT UNLESS HE GOT HIS WALL. NEWBIE SPECS ENTERED THE ARENA.  OLD SPECS THINKING THAT OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK  NEVER WITNESSES A SILVER RISE, SOLD SOME OF THEIR LONGS FOR A PROFIT.  THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO SUPPLY SOME NEW SHORTS AND AGAIN THEY COULD NOT COVER. THE BANKERS KEPT  SILVER IN CHECK TELEGRAPHING AN ATTEMPTED RAID WHICH AGAIN FAILED THIS MORNING

 

RESULT:  A MUCH HIGHER OI WITH A TINY HIGHER PRICE.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 16.19 POINTS OR 0.49{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 166.93 POINTS OR .43{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/ The Nikkei closed DOWN 80.81 POINTS OR 0.42{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.15{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6617/Oil DOWN to 48.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN , Offshore yuan trades  6.6613 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6617 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY

Read More @ HarveyOrganBlog.com

Stocks and Precious Metals Chart – Me and My Baby

from Jesse’s Café Américain:
“Learn what is to be taken seriously and laugh at the rest.”

Hermann Hesse

“Narcissism falls along the axis of what psychologists call personality disorders, one of a group that includes antisocial, dependent, histrionic, avoidant and borderline personalities.

But by most measures, narcissism is one of the worst, if only because the narcissists themselves are so clueless.”

The Strange Behavior of Gold Investors from Monday to Thursday

0

by Dimitri Speck, Acting Man:

Known and Unknown Anomalies

Readers are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequently observed weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely known anomalies, there are many others though, which most investors have never heard of. These anomalies can be particularly interesting and profitable for investors – and there are several in the precious metals sector as well.  Today I am going to introduce one of those to you.

As Donald Rumsfeld, former secretary of defense knew, there are things we know we know, things we know we don’t know, and things we don’t know we don’t know (unfortunately he neglected to consider that there are also things we think we know that just ain’t so, such as “Saddam has WMDs” – but let’s not digress). Anyway, Seasonax knows them all! [PT]

Gold investors dead asleep for days?

To this end we are going to examine the performance of gold and gold stocks broken down by days of the week.

The first chart shows the annualized performance of the gold price in USD terms since 2000 (black bar), as well as the annualized gain generated on individual days of the week (blue bars).

I have measured the returns based on closing prices, thus the performance achieved on Tuesday equals the average percentage change between the close of trading on Monday and the close on Tuesday.

 Gold, performance by days of the week, 2000 to 2017.  Friday stands out markedly
Gold, performance by days of the week, 2000 to 2017.  Friday stands out markedly

As the chart illustrates, one day really stands out: Friday. With an annualized return of 7.50 percent it reflects almost the entire annualized gain of 8.84 percent generated by the gold price over the time period under review.

By contrast, almost nothing noteworthy happened in the gold market from Monday to Tuesday. On Tuesday prices even declined slightly on average.

The difference – which has been measured over a period of no less than 4,585 trading days – is obviously quite significant. This suggests that these patterns are not a coincidence.

Gold investors indeed appear to be mired in deep sleep from Monday to Tuesday, or at the very least they are showing very little enthusiasm on these days.

The days of the week under the magnifying glass

What exactly was the cumulative trend in this pattern over time? The next illustration shows the indexed performance of gold since the turn of the millennium in gold color, as well as that of individual days of the week in other colors.

 Gold, cumulative performance by days of the week, 2000 to 2017, indexed. A steady uptrend was in evidence on Fridays
Gold, cumulative performance by days of the week, 2000 to 2017, indexed. A steady uptrend was in evidence on Fridays

As the chart shows, prices essentially tended to move sideways over the first four days of the week. Only in 2009 did Wednesday (green line) manage to generate a somewhat stronger average return as well.

The gains in the gold price over the entire period of almost 17 years were primarily achieved on Fridays. The blue line depicting the cumulative returns achieved on Friday is in a very steady uptrend. On Friday prices frequently even managed to rise even when the gold price declined overall in the course of the year, such as e.g. in 2014.

In short, Friday is indeed quite an unusual day.

 

The action in gold stocks is even more extreme

Given that Friday appears to hold a special position in the gold market, the question arises whether and to what extent gold stocks are affected by it. After all, the trend in gold stock prices depends on the trend in the gold price.

Read More @ Acting-Man.com

TODAY’S ALGO MACHINES DR0VE DOW UP 258 POINTS

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

NASDAQ UP 74 POINTS/GOLD DOWN $3.70 TO $1285.00/SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO $15.66/GERMANY HAS POOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NUMBERS FOR LAST MONTH/THERESA MAY LOSES A BIG VOTE WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW HER TO HAVE A “NO DEAL” BREXIT/MORE SWAMP STORIES/TRUMP TO TALK ABOUT THE WALL TONIGHT AT 9 PM<

Is The Silver COT Bullish?

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:

There’s been an abundance of commentary on the net long position of the “Swap Dealers” in Comex silver futures per the COT report. As of the latest COT report, the Swap Dealers are net long almost 22k silver contracts. This is unprecedented. At the same time, the “Large Speculators,” the majority of which is comprised of the “managed money” (hedge funds) sub-component, are net short nearly 17k silver contracts. The data my business partner tracks goes back to April 2004. In that period of time, the Large Speculator category has never been short until February 2018.

On the surface, the silver COT report appears to be extraordinarily bullish. However, there’s a bigger picture not discussed by “COT” analysts that includes the other segment of the large “Commercial” category and the COT structure of gold.