by David Haggith, The Great Recession Blog:
Let me help remove the rose-colored glasses for anyone who still thinks GDP this year is good.
First, GDP growth in the first quarter was not “great” as I’ve heard some claiming. It was, by US historical standards, a little lower than mediocre. Second, the biggest tax cuts in history only got us down to 2.9% GDP growth for 2018. GDP growth had been pegged originally around 3.1%, but that was revised down, as is usually the case. Every administration tends to estimate GDP on the rosy side because bad news is swallowed easier the further back in time it lies. So, estimate high and revise lower seems to be the government’s perennial approach.