by Tom Luongo, Tom Luongo:
After this weekend’s whirlwind events in Russia we’re left with a lot more questions than answers about what happened with Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin’s abortive rebellion against Moscow. I’m not here to answer any of those questions definitively because we’ll never really know.
That said, if what I think happened is anything close to the truth then this may be one of the greatest non-battlefield victories in modern history.
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Let’s start with what we know. Prigozhin’s been running his mouth for months about lack of support from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) while his boys did all the heavy lifting in Bakhmut. His issues with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu are pretty well known. It’s also likely that there’s zero love loss between Prigozhin and General Valeri Gerasimov either.
Pissing contests between military commanders are not unheard of, after all.
You could easily make the argument that Wagner was brought in to clean up the mess made by Shoigu while Gerasimov undertook the bigger task to reorient the Russian military away from Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) towards an infantry-focused army more capable of taking and holding territory.
There is this looming war with NATO after all.
You could also easily make the argument that his successes left Prigozhin in a position to demand changes and for him to begin getting a big head.
Now, let’s bring in the external factor here, the enemy, NATO. But really it is the US/UK neoconservatives who have been the ones spending every waking hour punching Russia in the face with blatant escalatory moves to try and draw Russia and Putin offside.
Nordstream 2, the Kerch Strait Bridge bombing, the staged massacre at Bucha, the Kakhovka dam explosion, the attacks at Belgorod, the arms smuggling into Odessa under the auspice of the ‘Grain deal…” The list is nearly endless.
We heard reports of the Russian FSB thwarting a smuggling operation of Cesium-137 into Ukraine to simulate a nuclear weapons attack. Salt some of this stuff to taste, but in the world I’ve come to live in there is almost nothing, no dirty trick low enough, that in desperation the Brits and their American co-conspirators would not attempt.
In my worldview MI6 and the British Defense Ministry spend all day, everyday coming up with a new way to justify a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. The destruction and balkanization of Russia has, after all, been their raison d’etre for more than 300 years.
And, so far, that heuristic has been almost perfectly accurate in predicting where things would go next.
So, let’s cut through all the bullshit about this, shall we?
In no way was this an organic affair. It’s been building for months. But what’s been building?
A guy like Prigozhin could easily become massively disheartened with Russia’s leadership. Could it be to the point of him taking up arms against Putin? Well, that’s certainly what a lot of people wanted us to believe this weekend.
And I’m in no way suggesting that it isn’t possible or even probable. It is the most likely story.
Now factor in the stories floating around out there that Prigozhin was bribed with billions for Wagner to stage his insurrection. Would anyone be surprised by this if it were ever found out?
What? the CIA with suitcases of cash for some foreign malcontent with delusions of grandeur?
The deuce you say!!
Remember folks, since we live in a world of dis- if not mal-information we have to concoct stories that fit what few facts we have along with assessing such basic things as motive, means and opportunity.
NATO or Bust
Moreover, things are accelerating into the July 11-12th NATO Summit, where it is obvious the neocons are pushing for a statement or policy change that will be the ultimate punch in the mouth for Putin.
