by Jim Rickards, Daily Reckoning:
I know that April just started, but the November election will be here before you know it. And the upcoming months are going to be fascinating — and not necessarily in the positive sense.
We all know that wild cards from a possible criminal conviction of Donald Trump to a strong third-party showing by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to a sudden withdrawal by Joe Biden due to his visibly impaired physical and mental health could take the best constructed analysis and stand it on its head.
At the same time, it’s not difficult to estimate a likely winner based on the best information available today. Where do things stand right now?
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
That winner would be Donald Trump going by recent polling showing both head-to-head and also including third-party candidates.
Trump is ahead in the polls, a situation that he’s not exactly accustomed to. He won in 2016 even though the polls showed him losing. He never led in a national poll in 2020.
Of course, polls aren’t foolproof — much depends on the size and composition of the sample and any biases of the polling firm. Things can always change between the polls and the election and probably will. That said, Trump is not just leading in some polls, he’s leading in all of them.
A Landslide for Trump?
Using the Real Clear Politics data (an average of many polls), Trump is ahead in the national poll by 46.6% for Trump to 44.9% for Biden.
Of course, the U.S. does not have national elections; the winner of the election is determined on a state-by-state Electoral College total. Still, the national lead is significant considering that Trump never had a national lead when he won the White House in 2016.
If electoral votes were tallied today with no toss-up states, Trump would win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Biden. That’s an Electoral College landslide for Trump.
When the polls are narrowed to include only the seven battleground states that will in all likelihood decide the election, Trump’s lead is even stronger.
He has a 3.9 percentage point lead with 47.4% for Trump and 43.5% for Biden. The news from those individual states is even better for Trump. When we look at the seven battleground states (again, a more relevant measure since the presidential election is won at the state level), Trump has the following leads measured in percentage points:
Wisconsin +1.2, Arizona +5.4, Georgia +5.0, Michigan +3.7, Pennsylvania +1.0, North Carolina +5.0 and Nevada +4.3.
The leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada are not just comfortable, they’re huge (you may recall most recent elections in swing states have been decided by less than 1%).
Trending Trump
The only key battleground states that are close are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both within the poll’s margin of error. But Trump was trailing in both until recently so they’re trending his way. Trump also leads in the betting odds by 45.4 for Trump and 37.2 for Biden.
This is all landslide territory. And a late substitution of Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama for the enfeebled Joe Biden would not change the outcome. In head-on-head contests, Trump leads Newsom by 17 points, 51% to 34%, and Trump leads Michelle Obama by seven points, 50% to 43% based on the latest Rasmussen polls.
That’s a pretty sad B-team for the Democrats when they lose to Trump by larger margins than the senile Biden.
Finally, there’s a considerable body of political science research that shows voters in presidential elections tend to lock in their positions well ahead of the actual election date. The election is still seven months away. The research suggests opinions are not likely to change significantly between now and Nov. 5.
Read More @ DailyReckoning.com
