by Matt Margolis, PJ Media:
Earlier this month, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, and we delved into the shifting dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, particularly in light of Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the ticket. I followed up with Mitchell over the weekend to discuss the latest polling developments — including the alleged “DNC bounce” for Harris, and the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
First, I pointed out that according to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has received a bounce in polling. However, Mitchell was cautious about over-interpreting this. He noted that while the polls have tightened by about one or two points since the week before the Democratic National Convention, the trends that FiveThirtyEight report are “much more pronounced” than what Rasmussen is seeing. Mitchell urged skepticism towards FiveThirtyEight’s model, pointing out that “there is a lot about the model that doesn’t appear to be disclosed.” He also mentioned that Rasmussen was excluded from FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate, which he attributed to “ideological reasons and who we associate with.”
When I asked about Rasmussen’s daily trends and what they reveal about the current state of the race, Mitchell explained that while he hadn’t yet finished crunching the latest numbers, the most recent nightly results were all within a point of each other. He could observe this stability in the data up until the final night of the convention. He also hinted that the next few days would provide insights into how voters are reacting to RFK Jr.’s endorsement of Trump.
Another issue I wanted to discuss with him is the accusations from the right that polls have been oversampling Democrats in their surveys to boost Harris. Mitchell didn’t hold back, expressing his frustration with what he perceives as a lack of transparency in polling. “People are holding data or not releasing polls to leave Harris-favorable polling alive in the aggregate,” he said.
