More evidence that American data may badly overstate the protection mRNA shots offer against hospitalization from Covid

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    by Alex Berenson, Unreported Truths:

    An internal database from two suburban Chicago hospitals reveals the bias; for health authorities, this skew is a feature, not a bug.

    An internal database from a Chicago-area medical system offers new evidence hospitals are inflating how many unvaccinated people are hospitalized for Covid.

    Many patients listed as having “unknown” Covid vaccination status and grouped with the unvaccinated are actually Covid-jabbed, the database suggests.

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    The system, which includes two medium-sized suburban hospitals west of Chicago, itself acknowledges in the database that it overestimates the number of unvaccinated patients – though it does not know by how much.

    This error may sound minor and technical. In fact, it is crucial.

    Knowing how many patients are vaccinated and how many are not is the first step in figuring out if mRNA shots reduce hospitalizations from Covid.

    If hospitals are systematically misclassifying vaccinated patients as unjabbed, the endlessly repeated claim that unvaccinated people are at much higher risk of being hospitalized from Covid becomes impossible to trust, much less verify.

    Covid vaccine skeptics have pointed out this potential flaw before.

    But figures from the hospital system – called Edward-Elmhurst Health – offer new and powerful evidence it is real, from an unexpected direction.

    In an internal dashboard, Edward-Elmhurst includes Covid vaccination figures not just for Covid patients but for all patients. (Last year, Edward-Elmhurst merged with an even larger Illinois hospital system, but this database does not include the other hospitals. A hospital employee with access to it provided screenshots from it as well as proof of employment.)

    Hospitals should have no incentive to misclassify vaccination status for non-Covid patients. And as long as Covid vaccinations don’t change the odds someone is hospitalized for non-Covid illnesses, inpatient trends should reflect vaccination levels in the broader population around the hospital.

    The two Edward-Elmhurst hospitals are located about 30 miles west of downtown Chicago, in suburban DuPage County. Even by blue-state standards, DuPage is very highly vaccinated against Covid. According to the Illinois Department of Public Health, 98.5 percent of adults over 65 in DuPage have received two or more Covid vaccine doses.

    Put another way, only 1.5 percent of country residents over 65 are unvaccinated.

    As of this morning, the two hospitals reported caring for 293 non-Covid patients over 65. Based on the local population averages, only four of those 293 should be unvaccinated.

    Yet the internal hospital system database listed 82 of those 293 non-Covid patients over 65 as having “unvaccinated or unknown” Covid vaccine status. In other words, the hospital is reporting about 20 times as many people over 65 as potentially unvaccinated as would be expected from a random sample – 82, compared to four.)

    (Friday’s Edward-Elmhurst hospital database for its NON-Covid patients – note that “Not Vaccinated/Unknown” are lumped together.)

    Why the discrepancy?

    The United States does not have a national immunization registry or single database for health-care records. To determine if patients are vaccinated, hospitals must ask them or their caregivers or examine whatever medical records they have or can access. Like many other medical systems, Edward-Elmhurst uses databases from a privately held company called Epic Systems Corporation.

    The dashboard itself warns that “vaccination status is reflecting what we have available in epic, there may be a few patients who were vaccinated out of state or in other facilities which might not be reflected in the dashboard.”

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