by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing.
Uh huh. The market no likey thinking that The Fed will be more aggressive and the initial response was to dump about 75 handles.
However — inside there is a different story. Note that the Establishment survey, which is what the headline number is based on, counts you as two jobs if you have two jobs; that is, “employed” is double-counted there if you have two jobs inherently (leaving aside intentional bias) because the two employers generally don’t know about each other.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
On the household side the unadjusted number was -395,000, and more to the point 650,000 people left the labor force – that is, they gave up for whatever reason.
The “employment by educational attainment” figures were interesting as well — they showed that degree holders got hammered. One has to wonder if the Twitter firings were in there, but that wasn’t that large and there was a drop of 348,000 in that category and, more-ominously, 316,000 people disappeared out of that bucket entirely.
Since you can’t “lose” educational status once you get into that top bucket, that of a Bachelor’s or better, the only way out of that bucket is to die.
(Ok, to be fair there are two other ways — you can go to prison or wind up in a nursing home, but the latter usually ends in “die” too they’re the same. I don’t recall mass-imprisonment of banksters and cryptofraud purveyors, even though I’d like to see it.)
I don’t take this as a “strong report” although the market clearly has. Further, we’re still putting more than 40,000 people into Health Care on a monthly basis, which is grossly increasing the cost and drag on the economy, yet health care is at best symbiotic and at worst parasitic in that it produces nothing (it may, however, allow someone who otherwise wouldn’t produce to do so.)
This print looks, to me, like the inception of a significant recession — which is likely to be especially fun in the coming months considering that January, in particular, is usually a firing month.