Signs of the Red Wave Approaching


    by John Kudla, American Thinker:

    Yes, folks, the red wave is real and coming to your town soon.

    I have discussed the types of bias that can occur in political polling in several previous articles, one of which you can read here.  Unfortunately, that bias is still out there.  More on that later.

    I have also discussed the hidden conservative vote, now officially recognized by pollsters and referred to as partisan non-response bias.  This means Democrats want to talk to the pollsters, and Republicans don’t.

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    In 2020, polls overestimated Joe Biden’s support by roughly 4% nationwide and by an average of 4.3 points at the state level.  The only factor the American Association for Public Research could point to for the polling miss was partisan non-response bias.

    What is partisan non-response bias?

    Imagine you are a conservative working at a woke corporation or a leftist college.  Or imagine you are a union member or are friends with a group of liberals.  If you admit you are a conservative, you could lose your job, ruin your career, or be shunned or ostracized.

    It does not stop there.  Conservatives are banned on social media despite our First Amendment rights.  The FBI is raiding the homes of prominent conservatives, including former president Trump.  And President Biden considers MAGA Republicans to be a threat to democracy.  Under these circumstances, would you admit you favor conservatives in a poll?  Would you even answer a poll?

    Since the level of partisan non-response bias can be assessed only after an election is over, how do we make an estimate now?  After all, you don’t know what you don’t know.

    The simplest thing to do is use the 2020 Biden nationwide polling miss of 4%.  It might be higher in red states like Ohio, which has more registered Republicans, and lower in blue states like Colorado.  This is a reasonable assumption until it is clear that pollsters have learned how to account for it.  Right now, I consider 4% low.

    There are structural forms of bias in the polls themselves.  Sometimes it is easy to spot.

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