by Peter Schiff, Schiff Gold:
September gold has been a very strong delivery month with 8,573 contracts being delivered plus an additional 718 in open interest that will be delivered over the next week (9,219 total). It is currently still below the July month but could exceed the total by the time the month completes due to mid-month activity.
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Figure: 1 Recent like-month delivery volume
As shown below, mid-month activity has been a huge driver this month, especially recently. July has seen 6,590 such contracts, up from 3,556 only two days ago. This is a major move higher for this late in the contract!
Figure: 2 Cumulative Net New Contracts
From a dollar volume perspective, this September has smashed the old record from 2020 despite the gold price being almost $400 lower!
Figure: 3 Notional Deliveries
Surprisingly, the house accounts, and particularly BofA, have been extremely quiet this month. If the current numbers hold, this will be the lowest net activity from house accounts since November 2021.
Figure: 4 House Account Activity
As the recent stock report showed, the physical movement of metal has been anything but quiet. Gold inventory continues to plummet at a rapid pace, with Registered dropping by a whopping 5.1M ounces since May 1st.
Figure: 5 Recent Monthly Stock Change
Gold: Next Delivery Month
Jumping ahead to October shows a slight elevation in open interest contracts relative to last year. October is an odd month as it sits between August and December. It’s too large to be a minor month, but also much smaller than major months.
