by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:

By now, you likely know that an inverted yield curve is almost always a precursor of economic contraction and recession. But can the yield curve tell you when the recession has actually begun? Let’s explore that today. 

First of all, what is an “inverted yield curve”? Well, the natural slope of the yield curve is positive, meaning short-term interest rates are lower than long-term interest rates. The opposite of this appears occasionally when short-terms rates are higher than long-term rates. The result is what’s called an inverted yield curve. From Investopedia: