by Gary Christenson, Miles Franklin:
Gold prices (weekly chart) formed an impressive inverse head and shoulders formation during a five-year base. Gold prices, which bottomed in December 2015, should climb the wall of worry.
WHAT WALL OF WORRY?
Really? You have to ask? Financial, stock market, debt and political worries come to mind:
a. Global debt is about $250 trillion. The lenders expect to be repaid plus interest. Repayment will occur via more borrowing—increasing already excessive debt. Don’t expect this scam to survive forever. It might last another five—ten years, but why raise your risk? Gold prices might suffer, as they did in 2008, in the initial collapse, but should rocket higher. If debt can’t be repaid from taxes and revenues, default and/or hyper-inflation will come. Both defaults and hyper-inflation will hurt most people.
b. Stock markets have rolled over. The NASDAQ 100 is down 21% from its all-time high in October. The S&P 500 Index is down 18% from its all-time high in September. Most stocks are down larger percentages. They call it a bear market.Remember the devastation of 2008 when debt was much lower, valuations less extreme, and the U.S. was less politically polarized. The Federal Reserve and politicians will “save” themselves and the political and financial elite. All others… well, good luck…
d. Signs of a credit crunch are visible. The economy runs on credit. Another 2008 style collapse is likely. Don’t expect an easy solution.
e. Buy the dip has morphed into sell the rip. Fear is replacing greed. Panic is next. People will become desperate to escape the Wall Street casino for something safe. Gold and silver are not a (dodgy) liability of another government, corporation or individual!
f. Interest rates are rising. The yield on the 10 Year Note bottomed two and one-half years ago. Central banks are raising interest rates and removing currency from circulation. The yield curve is flashing recession warnings—which means larger deficits, more debt, bankruptcies and job losses.
g. Based on risk and reward, stocks now look dodgy while gold and silver languished for over seven years and are ready to rise. Expect reversals.
h. Add your own fears—there is no shortage of worries.
But the cheerleaders say “there is nothing to worry about.”
The cheerleaders might claim:
- The Fed will “print” more dollars and support the stock market. Maybe, but after how much carnage?
- The “borrow and spend” scam has worked for over a century and will survive even if national debt reaches $500 trillion. That Ford F-150 truck that costs $50,000 now will cost far more when debt has gone multiples higher.
- The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. We’ll print more, so why worry about gold and silver insurance? Then why are Russia, China, India and others buying so much gold?
- Fort Knox is full of gold—over 8,000 tons of the stuff—if you trust the pronouncements from politicians, the Fed and Treasury officials. But, the Pentagon spends the equivalent of the Fort Knox gold every few months. Gold is inexpensive and spending is “out of control.” This will correct, consequences will be ugly for most Americans, and gold will rally much higher.
- Wall Street cheerleaders discourage physical gold ownership. They like paper investments that provide a revenue stream to Wall Street. Those paper investments had a long run, but the cycle has rolled over.
WHAT HAS LESS RISK THAN THE STOCK MARKET IN LATE 2018?
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? Maybe not!
Gold, silver, commodities and crude oil? Commodities have been weak for years and should rise, but a recession or worse will reduce demand. Crude oil has fallen 40% since a short-term high in October. However, gold has risen since August.
Examine the Thomas/Reuters Commodity Index times 10 divided by the S&P 500 Index.
The ratio has fallen to its lowest level in two decades. Longer term charts show similar undervaluation of commodities and over-valuation of the S&P 500 Index. Expect reversals.
Crude oil rises and falls based on supply, demand and politics. Examine the ratio of crude oil to the S&P 500 Index. The ratio has fallen almost as low as the late 1990s and has turned upward.
Gold has risen from $255 in 2001 to about $1250 in 2018, stronger than the commodity index. Real money—gold—is always desirable. The ratio has risen since the 2008 crisis when Asian investors, governments, and central banks wanted gold more than U.S. debt paper and other commodities.
The gold to silver ratio has reached a multi-decade high. This tells us two pieces of useful information.
- Both gold and silver are inexpensive when measured in dollars.
- Silver is undervalued compared to gold.
The ratio is a reliable long-term timing indicator. It forecasts higher gold and silver prices ahead.
- Stocks have rolled over. John P. Hussman Ph.D. has the data to support his belief that the S&P 500 Index should fall about 2/3 from its high. Expect more downside.
- Risk versus reward analysis is important. Stocks are risky. Currencies are debts issued by central banks, not real money. They are legally required and convenient, so we use them, but not because we trust politicians and central bankers. Currencies, issued by insolvent central banks, will decline in purchasing power, as they must. Unbacked paper currencies eventually fail. Gold is always valuable.