{"id":317845,"date":"2022-09-23T04:00:34","date_gmt":"2022-09-23T08:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/?p=317845"},"modified":"2022-09-22T09:16:30","modified_gmt":"2022-09-22T13:16:30","slug":"dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/2022\/09\/dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent\/","title":{"rendered":"Dot Plot Show Fed Anticipates More Hikes in 2023 to 4.50 Percent"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>by Mish Shedlock, <a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mish Talk<\/a>:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" style=\"width: 35%;\" src=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/.image\/c_limit%2Ccs_srgb%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_982\/MTkyNDk1MDI4OTkwMzg3NTEz\/dot-plot-of-fed-rate-projections-2022-09-21.webp\" alt=\"\" \/> The FOMC announcement was a big yawner, the dot plot wasn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p>The FOMC press statement was a complete yawner. For discussion please see\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/fed-hikes-by-three-quarters-of-a-point-promises-more-no-surprises\">Fed Hikes by Three-Quarters of a Point, No Surprises<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed&#8217;s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/files\/fomcprojtabl20220921.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Summary of Economic Projections<\/a>\u00a0from the meeting wasn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p><!--more Read More--> TRUTH LIVES on at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sgtreport.tv\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" data-auth=\"NotApplicable\">https:\/\/sgtreport.tv\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Hikes Come Hell or High Water?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Fed participants have a median expectation of 4.25 to 4.50 percent for the end of 2022<\/li>\n<li>That&#8217;s another 1.25 percentage points more this year.<\/li>\n<li>The Fed then anticipates one more hike in 2023 to 4.50 to 4.75 percent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I have to admit that a year ago I did not foresee this. But here we are.<\/p>\n<p>The key question is not where we&#8217;ve been but where we are headed. I Highly doubt the Fed hikes another 1.25 percentage points this year or gets anywhere close to 4.50 to 4.75 percent in 2023.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Fed Perpetually Chases Its Tail<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">The Fed will remain on auto-pilot with rate hikes until something other than housing or the stock market breaks.<\/p>\n<p>Expect everything to break at once.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Mike &#8220;Mish&#8221; Shedlock (@MishGEA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MishGEA\/status\/1572644712200417280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 21, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<aside class=\"m-in-content-ad-row l-inline mm-in-content-ad-row--in-content not-size-a not-size-b not-size-d\" data-ad-group=\"in_content-0\">\n<div class=\"m-in-content-ad not-size-a not-size-b not-size-d\" data-ad-group=\"in_content-0\" data-zone-count=\"1\">\n<div class=\"not-size-a not-size-b not-size-d m-in-content-ad is-loaded\">\n<div id=\"ad-b4e686ba5b91490c96175141e3c6f034\" data-google-query-id=\"CJSmk5-9qPoCFYF7fQodK-MIeg\" data-ad-size=\"adhesion\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/88059007,131006592\/mishtalk.com\/economics_3__container__\"><iframe id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/88059007,131006592\/mishtalk.com\/economics_3\" tabindex=\"0\" title=\"3rd party ad content\" role=\"region\" name=\"google_ads_iframe_\/88059007,131006592\/mishtalk.com\/economics_3\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" aria-label=\"Advertisement\" data-load-complete=\"true\" data-google-container-id=\"4\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p>Rate hikes operate with a lag, so multiple things will break at once.<\/p>\n<p>Others disagree but I think it&#8217;s a given the Fed makes a rare mistake of tightening too much.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed will once again chase its tail, this time from the opposite end, tightening too much, too fast.<\/p>\n<p><strong>GDPNow Forecast for 2022 Q3 Barely Positive Following Housing Starts Report<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I believe a recession has already begun. Regardless, the Fed is hiking and about to double QT smack in the middle of a very weak economy.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/mishtalk.com\/economics\/dot-plot-show-fed-anticipates-more-hikes-in-2023-to-4-50-percent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Read More @ MishTalk.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk: The FOMC announcement was a big yawner, the dot plot wasn&#8217;t. The FOMC press statement was a complete yawner. For discussion please see\u00a0Fed Hikes by Three-Quarters of a Point, No Surprises. The Fed&#8217;s\u00a0Summary of Economic Projections\u00a0from the meeting wasn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[138417],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317845"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=317845"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/317845\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=317845"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=317845"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.sgtreport.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=317845"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}