by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:

Eurointelligence founder Wolfgang Münchau has a thoughtful article on what Putin may or may not do.

Please consider What are the Odds?, emphasis mine.

I have received a number of emails over the last few days from correspondents who assert that the risk of a nuclear war was small, or that it was unlikely. It is worth reflecting on the meaning of these predictions in detail. What does unlikely mean when we are talking about a nuclear war?