by Tom Luongo, Tom Luongo:

With the markets still firmly convinced the Federal Reserve will hike the Fed Funds Rate by just 25 basis points (0.25%) on Wednesday, I find it fascinating that no less a figure than Mohamed El-Erian, former head of PIMCO, argued for the Fed to stay the course and surprise markets with another 50 basis point move this week.

I agree with him. Completely.

I know you’re shocked.

This article came out on the same day as the latest US GDP figure (Q4 +2.6%), home sales (slowing but not terminal), inventories (down), and jobless claims (uninteresting).  It was followed up with week ending data about consumer spending and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the PCE deflator, coming in cooling as expected, and now just barely below the FFR, 4.4% vs. 4.5%.