Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Move Over Fort Knox: Here’s An Actual Look Inside Russia’s Gold Vaults At Their Gold Reserves

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from SilverDoctors:

It’s no secret that Russia has been stacking the shiny phyzz for years, and here’s a glimpse showing exactly how they stack…

Article originally sourced via English Russia

Photos from main gold storage of Central Bank of Russia. Almost 1800 tons of gold is stored here. This is the main storage of gold in Russia. This makes Russia to be number six in the world by gold storage.

However ten years ago Russia had only 3% share of the total world gold storage.

Today Russia’s gold is 17% of world’s gold.

Read More @ SilverDoctors.com

GOLD RISES $6.05 TO $1318.85/SILVER RISES 3 CENTS TO $17.01

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

GOLD EFP’S RISE BY ANOTHER 9600 CONTRACTS/SILVER EFP TRANSFERS TO LONDON: 1436 CONTRACTS/THE BIG NEWS OF THE DAY: CHINA SET TO ABANDON PURCHASE OF USA BONDS/ALSO USA IS SET TO ABANDON NAFTA WHICH SENT THE MEXICAN PESO AND THE CANADIAN DOLLAR FALLING

GOLD: $1318.85 UP $6.05

Silver: $17.01 UP 3 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1317.00

silver: $16.98

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1319.28 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1311.80

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $7.48

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1327.54

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1311.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$16.54

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1321.65

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1315.80

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1319.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1318.10

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 256 FOR 25600 OZ (0.7962 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

30 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

150,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 537 for 2,685,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $14,030/OFFER $14,150 DOWN $345 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID   14,547/OFFER  $14,667 up  $170(CLOSING)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A FAIR 795 contracts from 194,214 RISING TO 195,009 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD NO COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT WE WITNESSED ANOTHER FAILED MAJOR BANK SHORT- COVERING OPERATION. NOT ONLY THAT , WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A CONSIDERABLE 1436 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1436 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1436 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED  EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. I BELIEVE THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

20,707 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 20,707 CONTRACTS OR 103.500 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2588 CONTRACTS OR 12.940 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED GAIN IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES ANOTHER FAILED BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED  EFP ISSUANCE OF 1436 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.  FROM THE CME DATA 1436 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S AND NONE FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 2231 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1436 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 795  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 14 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.94 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9775 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 30 NOTICE(S) FOR 150,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 3383 CONTRACTS UP TO 555,455 DESPITE THE  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($6.30). IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  9593 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 9593 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 555,455.DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE ANOTHER GOOD GAIN OF 12,976 OI CONTRACTS: 3383 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED9593 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5660 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 72,858 CONTRACTS OR 7.286 MILLION OZ OR 226.26 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,107 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 910,700 OZ/DAY)

Result: A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE  FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($6.30). WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9593. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9593 EFPCONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 12,976 contracts:

9593 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  3383 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 40.36 TONNES)

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

With gold up again, we had another strange withdrawal today from the GLD: 2.95 tonnes

Inventory rests tonight: 831.91 tonnes.

SLV/ 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 795 contracts from 194,214 UP TO 195,009 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RE
CORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 14 CENTS   YESTERDAY.  WE HAD WITHOUT A DOUBT ANOTHER MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE CAPITULATED. NOT ONLY THAT BUT OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 1436 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD NO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. BUT, IF WE TAKE THE GOOD OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 795 CONTRACTS TO THE 1436 OITRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 2231 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS DESPITE THE MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 11.15 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FALL OF 14 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 1436 EFP’S ISSUEDTRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 7.93 points or 0.23% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 62.31 pts or 0.20% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 61.79 POINTS OR 0.26%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.57%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.5040/Oil UP to 63.52 dollars per barrel for WTI and 69.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY RED.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5040. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.5140 //ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS STILL  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS AND STRONGER YUAN)

Read More @ HarveyOrganBlog.com

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies

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by Mark O’Byrne, Goldcore:

Gold Hits All-Time Highs Priced In Emerging Market Currencies

– Gold at all time in eight major emerging market currencies
– A stronger performance than seen when priced in USD, EUR or GBP
– As world steps away from US dollar hegemony expect new gold highs in $, € and £
– Gold is a hedge against currency debasement and depreciation of fiat currencies

 

When we talk about the gold price we all too often focus on it priced in US dollars, with some frequent glances to Sterling and Euro as well. This is understandable, after all these are the currencies the majority of readers buy and sell in. The US dollar price is also the one which is most universally quoted.

However this approach ends up giving us a very skewed perspective of the gold market and price behaviour.It is arguably an old fashioned approach in a very globalised world. The relationship between gold and the US dollar is one which is rooted in the Bretton Woods agreement, something which was scrapped in 1971.

Today the gold price and the gold market is international, with far more interest in physical gold being paid by the emerging markets. One just has to look at the gold buying policies of Russia and China to see this.

In the long term, gold has performed very well in dollar, sterling, euro and all fiat currencies with gains of between 7% and 12% per annum over a 15 year period. Gains in emerging market currencies have been even greater.

Very often a change in the price of gold is a reflection in the change of the value of the currency in which you are choosing the quote the price. This has certainly be the case in the last year or so when it comes to gold bullion priced in the US dollar.

In 2017, gold’s dollar price was far more reflective of the dominant world currency’s perceived value than it was of other global events such as inflation, the threat of nuclear war etc.

So when the price of gold changes it is how it is perceived in relation to that currency and (more importantly) how that currency is behaving against other currencies.

Gold is a currency and clearly one of the most important safe havens and alternatives to the greenback. We see this with other currencies such as the Yen and the euro. So whilst gold might be a bet against the value of the US dollar it is also a safe haven against global risks and a hedge against currency devaluation.

This is of particular interest when we consider the above chart. Eight emerging market currencies and currently experiencing all time high gold prices. This gives a perspective of the gold market through a lens that we don’t usually see from a Western perspective. This perspective shows a totally different gold market – one which is at all time highs.

Is this a gold market that is perhaps reflecting the true risk in the global system?

The above chart was created by allstarcharts.com and was accompanied by this analysis:

Read More @ Goldcore.com

Brinks Reports Mysterious $11 Million Gold Shipment Heist

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from ZeroHedge:

Over the past year, we reported several brazen, and very significant, gold thefts, usually occurring in broad daylight, among which”

None of these however compare to what Security logistics and precious metals vaulting company Brinks reported after hours, when it announced that it would incur an $11 million charge as a result of a theft of an international gold shipment in December.

Brinks adds that the robbery occurred on December 6 and remains under investigation. While there was little additional disclosed, Brinks said that the customer affected by the theft has been fully reimbursed by Brink’s and added that “if the gold is recovered, or if any portion of Brink’s monetary loss is subrogated to third parties prior to the filing of the company’s Form 10-K, the recovery value will be reflected in 2017 results.” 

And while we certainly would like to learn more about this particular heist, the company said that due to the ongoing investigation and related security protocols, Brink’s does not intend to make additional comments regarding the robbery at this time.

The good news is that despite the $11MM charge, Brinks won’t suffer too much, and BKS reported that the company’s 2017 non-GAAP operating profit is expected to be approximately $280 million, an increase of 30% over 2016, if at the low end of its prior guidance range of $280 million to $290 million.

To think of all the unpleasantries could have been avoided if the shipper had sold the physical gold, bought some cryptos, sent the cryptos anywhere in the world instantly, then used it to purchase the same amount of gold.

Finally putting the mysterious theft in context, based on a recent summary of the notable gold robberies, the $11 million value of the stolen shipment would place it as the 12th biggest gold heist in history.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

If The Banks Try To Unwind Their Silver Short, Who Are They Going To Buy From?

by Chris Marcus, Miles Franklin:

While there’s a lot of commentary about the large paper short position that exists in the silver market, there’s an additional factor exacerbating the situation that few have mentioned. Specifically, given the mindset of the investors that actually own silver, if the banks and hedge funds have to cover their short position, who are they going to buy the metal from?

In a typical free market the price of an asset would be where there is an intersection of supply and demand. Yet consider the mindset of the average silver investor, which is far from your typical market participant.

Most of the people who own silver purchased their metal primarily in response to endless dollar printing. Often with a belief that the printing will continue, ultimately until the dollar is worth little or nothing.

This is different from the typical investor profile in many of the other standard investment markets. Usually in trading markets such as the stock market, people invest with the hope that a position goes their way, and then eventually convert to cash or another investment.

But those who own physical silver are generally coming at their investment from a different perspective. They bought silver because of concerns about the currency system, and are not necessarily looking to book a gain and convert back into dollars just because the price hit $20 or $30.

If someone has expenses or bills to pay, then sure, it’s possible they might sell some silver to access funds. But especially with silver so far below it’s 2011 $49 high, and with more money in the system than ever, at least the silver buyers I’ve spoken to over the past decade don’t seem like they’ll be in any rush to go out and sell.

So if the banks wanted to unwind their position, who are they going to buy all that silver from?

Part of the answer depends on the context in which a move occurs. If we just saw silver rise to $100 per ounce without any news or further significant dollar degradation, perhaps there would be more metal holders who might wonder if the price has hit a top and if it’s time to sell. But if silver hits $100 because the Fed just launched QE 5, 6, and 7, are silver investors going to be clamoring to convert back to dollars at the same time there are more of them in circulation than ever?

Speaking for myself, I first bought silver in 2010 primarily because I finally grasped the situation with the money supply. Based on the amount of money that had been printed and simple math, it always seemed to me that if silver were allowed to trade freely, the price would simply have to be a lot higher.

Yet as I learned more about the market and what Federal Reserve actually does, I started to realize that just like in other hyperinflation scenarios, eventually the dollar price just stops being relevant. At some point there would just be no reason to trade back into something that’s lost it’s value.

What all of this leads to is an environment where there could be incredible pressure on the shorts to cover their position at the same time it would be hard to find an offer. Which is why it always seemed that the longer the banks sold metal they don’t own, the more of a corner they backed themselves into.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com

Russia’s Plans for a “Fire Escape” Currency

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by Byron King, Daily Reckoning:

It may be a new year, but Russia makes no secret of its long-term dissatisfaction with U.S. politics, the dollar and, by extension, U.S. monetary hegemony in the world.

Russia has been under U.S./Western economic sanctions for over three years. Meanwhile, oil prices have been “lower for longer,” as the saying goes, due to global competition for market share from U.S. fracking. The overall impact of these phenomena has been costly to the Russian economy.

Still, Russia has persevered through all manner of external economic roadblocks. The Russian view is sanguine, and that, as time passes, the dollar is in trouble, for a lengthy list of reasons.

Indeed, Russia’s strategic intent is clear…

To escape the constraints and political risks of a dollar-denominated world. In fact, Russian leaders are forming a new currency arrangement that will allow them to do exactly that.

My partner Jim Rickards and I call this new phenomenon Russia’s “fire escape” currency. It’s coming down the line, and smart investors can profit from it.

First though, you need to understand the Russian view of the dollar.

At the highest levels of Russian governance, officials are deeply concerned with what they perceive as U.S. political meddling and bullying, based on the dollar.

Western economic sanctions are part of this. The U.S. and Western partners have blocked all manner of trade in goods and services with Russia, and extended the blockage to many Russian export items as well.

Plus, Russia chafes under restrictions on transferring funds via the international SWIFT system (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). There are many other issues related to the dollar, as well. Far too many to list here.

But, it’s fair to say that Russian policymakers hold profound distrust and resentment towards how the U.S. has, in their view, abused the status of the dollar as the predominant international reserve currency.

As far back as 2011, at a major conference in Russia, Vladimir Putin said, “They (USA) are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world economy… They (USA) are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar.”

Unsurprisingly, since 2011, Russia has pushed back against dollar-hegemony. Among other things, Russia has accumulated a large amount of gold.

In fact, in the past six years, Russia has more than doubled its official, publicly-acknowledged, state holdings of gold, as this chart makes clear.

Russia has broadcast news of this gold buildup to the entire world. Russian policymakers want people to know about the gold stash.

For example, according to a recent article in Russia’s Sputnik News, Russia’s monetary policy has the Kremlin’s central bank “Stacking Bullion Bricks Like There Is No Tomorrow.”

Many Russians regard those gold bricks as a “strategic reserve” for the country. That’s because Russian culture is imbued with a deep-seated military viewpoint, formed over many centuries of warfare between that nation and its external enemies and invaders.

So, Russians see physical gold as a critical substance, held back and out of normal usage, in case of need during an emergency.

Read More @ DailyReckoning.com

The Three Major Themes for Gold in 2018 – Craig Hemke

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by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:

Beginning in late 2016, we began to question what we termed “The Generally Accepted Narrative of 2017”. This allowed us to accurately forecast rising precious metal prices last year. For 2018, we will generally rely upon three overriding themes, and we discuss them in detail today.

As a recap, what was GAN2017? We first spelled it out in a formal post on January 17, 2017. You can read it here: https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8103/questioni…

From that post, the five primary tenets of GAN2017 were:

1. Major US deficit spending will promote economic growth

2. This economic growth will allow The Fed to hike the Fed Funds rate 3-4 times

3. Rates on the long end will rise, too, as “the bond bubble bursts”

4. All of this growth and higher rates will prompt a huge rally in the dollar

5. And the US stock market will charge toward 25,000 on the Dow.

So, how did this turn out?

1. Economic growth as measured by GDP looks to come in at around 2%. Trump’s only political win came with the tax cuts of late December. Nothing done on infrastructure or healthcare.

2. The Fed did, in fact, hike the FF rate 3 times.

3. Long rates fell, and the bond bubble definitely did NOT burst.

4. “King Dollar” did NOT return, and the Dollar Index fell by over 10%.

5. The Dow topped 25,000 for the first time in history last week.

For the purposes of precious metal investing, points number 3 and 4 were the most important. Because rates and the dollar fell, Comex gold rose over 13% on the year . . . its best annual gain since 2010.

So, what’s next for 2018?

As we’ve already mentioned, 2018 will be defined by three general risks. How these play out will dramatically impact the dollar, the bond market and precious metals. The three risks are:

Political Risk — By late summer of this year, attention will turn to the coming mid-term elections in the US. If the Democrats are poised to regain control of Congress, speculation regarding a move to impeach President Trump will rapidly intensify. How will this affect US fiscal and monetary policy?

Geo-Political Risk — If you’re paying any attention at all to global events, this needs no further explanation. Whether it’s the possibility of renewed war on the Korean Peninsula, conflagration in the Middle East or actual Hot War between NATO and Russia, geo-politics have the potential to greatly unsettle global markets in 2018.

De-Dollarization Risk — The global pace of de-dollarization is clearly quickening. Later this month, a yuan-denominated crude oil contract will begin trading in Shanghai. Later this year, a ruble-denominated gold contract will begin trading in Moscow. These and other events will provide a clear challenge to US dollar hegemony in 2018.

In 2017, the mainstream financial press blindly pumped GAN2017 without any regard to other possible outcomes. At TFMR, we were first to proclaim GAN2017 a sham, and we were all rewarded with gains in gold and silver. Now in 2018, where in the media do you see ANYONE discussing the three risks laid out above? Instead, it’s all about the cryptos and Dow 25,000. Well, I can assure you that just as we were generally correct about GAN2017, we’re going to be correct about The Three Themes of 2018, too. Just give it a while to play out.

To that end, 2018 has begun with a continued fall in the broad-based US Dollar Index. As mentioned above, this index fell over 10% in 2017. If it soon drops below 90, it will be poised to fall a similar amount in 2018.

Read More @ SprottMoney.com

GOLD FALLS BY $6.30 DO $1312.80/SILVER FALLS 14 CENTS TO $16.98/GOLD EFP TRANSFERS: ALMOST 5900 CONTRACTS

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

SILVER EFP’S ALMOST 1800 CONTRACTS/BOND PRICES COLLAPSE TODAY (YIELDS RISE) AS JAPAN TAPERS THEIR QE

GOLD: $1312.80 DOWN $6.30

Silver: $16.98 DOWN 14 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1311.80

silver: $16.94

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1325.13 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1318.70

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $6.43

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1321.22

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1318.15

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$3.77

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1314.05

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1315.00

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1311.00

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1310.75

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 1300 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 255 FOR 25500 OZ (0.7931 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 507 for 2,535,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $14,727/OFFER $14,847 DOWN $220 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID   14,696/OFFER  $14,817 DOWN  $240(CLOSING)

 

end

 

your humour story of the day:

 

 

Wife texts to husband on a cold winter morning:

 

“Windows frozen. Won’t open.”

  

Husband texts back:

 

“Slowly pour warm water over it and then gently tap the edges with a hammer.”

  

Wife texts back 10 minutes later:

 

“Computer really messed up now.”

 end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY TINY  215 contracts from 194,429 FALLING TO 194,214 WITH YESTERDAY’S 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT WITHOUT A DOUBT WE WITNESSED ANOTHER MAJOR BANK SHORT- COVERING OPERATION. NOT ONLY THAT , WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A CONSIDERABLE 1340 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1340 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1340 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED  EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. I BELIEVE THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING AGAIN TODAY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

19,271 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,271 CONTRACTS OR 96.355 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2753 CONTRACTS OR 13.765 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE WHICH USUALLY INDICATES HUGE BANKER SHORT-COVERING. WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED  EFP ISSUANCE OF 1721 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS.  FROM THE CME DATA 1340 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S AND NONE FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 1125 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1340 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 215  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 11 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.12 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9710 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY AN SMALL SIZED 631 CONTRACTS UP TO 552,072 DESPITE THE  FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($1.40). IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  5660 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY SAW 5660 CONTRACTS AND APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 552,072.DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE ANOTHER GOOD GAIN OF 6,291 OI CONTRACTS: 631 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED 5660 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

FRIDAY, WE HAD 6115 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 63,265 CONTRACTS OR 6.326 MILLION OZ OR 196.76 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,037 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 903,700 OZ/DAY)

Result: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN OI DESPITE THE  FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($1.40). WE HAD ANOTHER FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5660. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5660 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 6,291 contracts:

5660 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  631 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain in total oi equates to 19.56 TONNES)

we had: 13 notice(s) filed upon for 1300 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

 

No changes in gold inventory at the GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 834.86 tonnes.

SLV/ 

NO CHANGES IN SI
LVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL 215 contracts from 194,429 UP TO 194,214 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER TO THE TUNE OF 11 CENTS   YESTERDAY.  WE HAD WITHOUT A DOUBT ANOTHER MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR BANKERS AS THEY HAVE CAPITULATED. NOT ONLY THAT BUT OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 1340 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD NO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. BUT, IF WE TAKE THE SMALL OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 215 CONTRACTS TO THE 1340 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1125 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS DESPITE THE MAJOR BANKER SHORT COVERING. WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 5.63 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FALL OF 11 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER 1340 EFP’S ISSUEDTRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 4.42 points or 0.13% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 111.88 pts or 0.36% / The Nikkei closed UP 135.46 POINTS OR 0.57%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.08%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5280/Oil UP to 61.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.86 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.5230. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.5300 //ONSHORE YUAN  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS STILL  HAPPY TODAY.(GOOD MARKETS BUT WEAKER YUAN)

 

Read More @ HarveyOrganBlog.com

First Majestic Silver CEO Keith Neumeyer Talks About The End Of The Silver Manipulation

by Chris Marcus, Miles Franklin:

During a recent interview, First Majestic Silver CEO Keith Neumeyer shared some interesting comments about the silver market. In particular he spoke about a development that could lead to the end of the ongoing manipulation.

For those not familiar, Neumeyer is one of, if not the only mining CEO to speak publicly about the manipulation that has left silver prices suppressed. His interviews always offer insightful commentary, and this latest one covered what could be a game changing event for the price of silver.

For those who have read about or studied the manipulation, you’ve likely heard about how there’s a large disconnect between the physical and paper silver markets. Of course the natural question on the mind of many investors, is when will it end.

In his interview Neumeyer mentioned that “there’s work going on right now to create a system using blockchain to price metals.” When asked directly how he thought the implementation of such an idea could impact the situation in the silver market, here’s how he responded.

“It’s going to remove the whole system of marginal banking where today we have over 300 times margin on silver. Silver trades on a global scale about a billion ounces a day and virtually all of that is paper, or 90% plus is paper.  

The miners produce 800 million ounces a year, so we’re trading, just using simple math, 365 billion ounces a year on the exchanges worldwide, and we’re only producing 800 million ounces per year.  

That’s a quite lot of leverage in my view. So if you get a way from the exchanges, that leverage disappears, and you have a much more fair pricing mechanism.

That whole system that’s currently pricing our metals is going to end

Keep in mind that Neumeyer is not the only figure in the market to suggest such a possibility. There was a lot of attention in mid 2017 when well-known analyst Andrew Maguire predicted a gold and silver price reset, based on his involvement with a similar project at the time.

Obviously that didn’t occur on the schedule Maguire predicted. However his forecast was based on the introduction of a blockchain product backed by gold and silver, which was delayed, but is what Neumeyer is talking about now.

Neumeyer also commented on some of the supply and demand fundamentals in the market that have led to the potential development of such a product.

“If you go back to 2015, the mining industry as a whole worldwide produced 850 million ounces of silver. In 2016 that number was 800 million ounces. A reduction of 50 million ounces. We know in 2017 that Chile is down 10%, and Canada and Mexico are also down.

If we add it all up the speculation is that the mining industry as a whole is something in the order of 750 million ounces in 2017. So we’re seeing declining world production of silver and increasing demand for the metal. This is a perfect storm.

The market hasn’t picked up on this yet, but this is a serious issue. 

In terms of how that will impact the market, Neumeyer shared the following: 

There will be a day, and in my view it’s going to be in the short term, not in the long term, whereby you have a Tesla, an Apple, or a Toyota that just simply can’t produce their products anymore because they have a lack of silver. 

That’s what going to change the industry, and that’s going to start showing up in the headlines. Naturally we’re going to start see a big change in the current ratio to numbers that are closer to the production ratio of 9:1 (gold to silver) which will put silver at triple digits.

Read More @ MilesFranklin.com

What Has the Age of Quantitative Easing Gotten Us? Ron Paul Explains (Video)

by Peter Schiff, SchiffGold:

When the housing bubble popped in 2007, the Federal Reserve went to work to reinflate the bubble. It quickly pushed interest rates to zero, and in December 2008, the Fed launched the first of three rounds of quantitative easing. The virtual money printing lasted for five years.

So, what did we ultimately get for the billions of dollars created by these Federal Reserve programs? As Ron Paul explains in a special episode of the Liberty Report, more numerous and bigger bubbles, and another crisis waiting to happen. 

The housing bubble is back along with subprime loans. There’s an auto financing bubble encouraged by subprime loans for many customers. The stock market is in a bubble waiting to be pricked. The bond market is in a huge bubble as a result low or negative interest rates.”

The Fed wasn’t alone in its interventionist monetary policy. Central banks around the world followed the same prescription. All in all, the central banks of the world increased their balance sheets by $8.3 trillion, with only $2.1 trillion worth of GDP growth to show for it.

This left $6.2 trillion of excess liquidity in the banking system that did not go where the economic planners had hoped. Central banks now own $9.7 trillion of negative interest-yielding bonds. The financial system has been left with a bubble mania, financed by artificial credit and unsustainable debt. The national debt in 2007 was $8.9 trillion; today it’s $20.5 trillion. Rising interest rates will come and that will be deadly for the economy and the federal budget.”

This is exactly what Peter Schiff predicted would happen. He talked about it in a recent podcast.

It’s not a mortgage crisis, it is a dollar crisis. That is the only place we are headed. In fact, this is the exact crisis that I have been forecasting since the very beginning, because it is a byproduct of the monetary mistakes that I knew the Federal Reserve was going to make in the aftermath of the ’08 financial crisis – to reflate, or attempt to reflate, the stock market bubbles and the housing bubbles that they had created but that had popped.”

Peter said the central bankers succeeded in reinflating the bubbles even beyond his wildest imagination. But that’s not good news.

So, they have inflated the mother of all bubbles, and when the air comes out, or in order to prevent the air from coming out, they have to crash the dollar.”

Peter has been saying that the central bankers have reached the end of their rope. There isn’t enough stimulus or interest rate tinkering left in the tank to reinflate the bubbles the next time they burst. That’s why he’s predicting a currency crisis in the future. Ron Paul is equally pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to save the economy again. He said we ultimately need radical monetary reform.

We’re at the point where another QE inflationary binge will not tide us over in the next economic downturn. We’re fast approaching the time when true monetary reform will be required to deal with the ‘sin’ of living beyond our means. If that is not done, expect a long period of economic chaos, inner city violence, and political warfare.”

Paul said gold will likely play an important role in monetary reform.

Though currently, there is a lackadaisical interest in gold compared to crypto-currencies, I believe gold is in the early stage of the third major bull market since 1971, which started two years ago when gold was $1050/oz. If history is of any benefit, gold will be used in the coming monetary reform, whether it’s accomplished by the government or the market. But if the choice of a monetary unit turns out not related to something tangible, it will prove to be a first in history. Just because our current money is now a total fiat dollar, it can’t be used to justify a market developed fiat currency. We must remember that the dollar was originally defined as a weight of silver or gold. The destructive nature of the monetary event of Aug. 15, 1971, was a consequence of our government refusing to maintain the dollar’s relationship to something tangible, thus making it a fiat currency. This explains why we’re in such a mess. A fiat currency developed in the market, won’t solve the current financial crisis the world faces … All paper or fiat money self-destructs and has limited lifespans. Gold currencies last until governments debase them into a fiat currency. The fiat dollar today, for many nefarious reasons, is constantly being destroyed by counterfeiters posing as politicians and central bankers. The day is fast approaching when the fiat dollar standard will need a major overhaul. The age of quantitative easing is ending.”

Read More @ SchiffGold.com

Quantum Change in Gold Demand Continues – Precious Metals Supply-Demand Report

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by Keith Weiner, Acting-Man:

Fundamental Developments

In this New Year’s holiday shortened week, the price of gold moved up again, another $16 and silver another 29 cents. Or we should rather say the dollar moved down 0.03mg gold and 0.03 grams silver. It will make those who borrow to short the dollar happy…

Let’s take a look at the only true picture of the supply and demand fundamentals for the metals. But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio.

 Gold and silver prices in USD terms
Gold and silver prices in USD terms

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio dropped.

In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price.

 Gold-silver ratio, bid and offer
Gold-silver ratio, bid and offer

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and co-basis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and co-basis in red.

Here is the gold graph showing gold basis and gold price.

 Gold basis, co-basis and the USD priced in milligrams of gold
Gold basis, co-basis and the USD priced in milligrams of gold

Look at that quantum change after Christmas. The basis (i.e., the indicator of abundance) had peaked, and the co-basis (i.e. scarcity) had bottomed. Up until it reversed, those moves were tracking the price. As the price of gold was rising (the green line shows the inverse, the price of the dollar!), gold was initially becoming more abundant, less scarce.

But after Christmas, something snapped. Gold started to become less abundant as its price kept rising. This violates no economic law, though it has been a rare occurrence of late. Until Christmas week.

It should be no surprise that our Monetary Metals Gold Fundamental Price rose $29 this week, to $1,336.

Read More @ Acting-Man.com