by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:
Oh, boy. Here we go again. It’s the start of a new year, and that means it’s time for another adventure in long term price forecasting. Around here we call it a “macrocast” because we figured out long ago that, in a world dominated by computers trading derivatives, if you can get the macroeconomic conditions right, you’ve got a decent shot at forecasting the gold price, too.
Well…most of the time. Our track record in these forecasts had been pretty good until 2021. The macroeconomic conditions had promoted stability for gold prices in 2017 and 2018. The Fed’s monetary policy then changed in late 2018, and this promoted positive gold prices in 2019 and 2020. Here are some summaries and links to past reports: