Monday, January 17, 2022

Reality Bites: A Forecast for Precious Metals in 2022

by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:

Oh, boy. Here we go again. It’s the start of a new year, and that means it’s time for another adventure in long term price forecasting. Around here we call it a “macrocast” because we figured out long ago that, in a world dominated by computers trading derivatives, if you can get the macroeconomic conditions right, you’ve got a decent shot at forecasting the gold price, too.

Well…most of the time. Our track record in these forecasts had been pretty good until 2021. The macroeconomic conditions had promoted stability for gold prices in 2017 and 2018. The Fed’s monetary policy then changed in late 2018, and this promoted positive gold prices in 2019 and 2020. Here are some summaries and links to past reports:

2022 Wild Unpredictable Year – Craig Hemke

by Greg Hunter, USA Watchdog:

Financial writer, market analyst and precious metals expert Craig Hemke says there is only one certain thing you can say about the economy in 2022, and that is “Don’t buy the lie, the Fed does not have inflation under control.”  Everything else is a huge wild card.  We start with the stack of unpredictable things that Hemke sees, and he explains, “I think, economically, you can tell where we are headed, but anyone who can predict what 2022 is going to be like politically is crazy.  This is going to be a wild unpredictable year.  It will be volatile.  If anything, this is an election year in Congress.  All of the House and a third of the Senate and control of that agenda is up for grabs.  You know we are going back down the path of allegedly ‘peaceful demonstrations’ that come with it.  Then you’ve got inflation, supply chain disruptions and all these empty shelves.  What if that gets worse?  Then you have societal disruptions from hungry people.   Then everybody around the world has been sold this story that the vaccines are going to keep you out of the hospital, and they are going to keep the disease mild.  All that is being walked back now.  What if it turns out the vax has done more harm than good?  God only knows how the whole world will revolt.   If it is discovered in 2022 that the vaccines globally have done more harm than good, which is entirely possibly because it is new technology being used for the first time . . . . If it turns out that way, people are going to freak out. . . . If there are millions of people marching in the streets, the governments are not going to say, oh well, we screwed up.  You think they are cracking down now?  What do you think the crackdowns are going to look like nine months from now?”

SILVER: Day Of Reckoning, Make Or Break, Do Or Die, Now Or Never, BIG MOMENT Of Truth IS HERE!

from Silver Doctors:

Once silver takes out $23, or $22, or something, it’s gonna get messy!

(by Half Dollar) Hopefully everybody’s start to 2022 is financially going well.

Like, “do you even buy The North Face jackets when the temperature is in the teens, bro”?

Well sadly, I do.

Analyst: Here’s What Will Push Gold to a Record High (Sooner than Most Expect)

from Birch Gold Group:

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Gold at $2,100 before the end of the year, global central bank holdings rose to 36,000 tons last year, and U.S. Mint posts strongest annual gold coin sales in 12 years.

Gold could test new highs before the end of the year: commodities analyst

David Lennox, a commodities for Fat Prophets, went over the factors that are driving gold toward a new all-time high for the second consecutive year. According to Lennox, $2,100 is a target that investors should look out for this year. Inflation and U.S. dollar weakness are, as usual, some of the primary pushers.

2022 Gold Demand Through the Roof with Andy Schectman

by Kerry Lutz, Financial Survival Network:

It’s important to look at trends in gold and silver to analyze what is to come and how you can prepare. Here to help us do that is Andy Schectman, and we discus what could possibly happen in 2022 in light of the Fed’s decisions to taper and hike rates. 2020 and 2021 were record years for the precious metals as people become increasingly cautious about leaving their money in the bank and fully relying on the dollar. It’s critical to consider whether the Fed will follow through or not with what they have said, and either way we need to prepare for the outcome; ultimately, buying gold and silver now is the best move. Tune in for more.

Gold Could Hit $2,100 This Year – Plus 10 Major Risks to 2022

by Dave Allen, The International Forecaster:

Gold could test new highs of $2,100 an ounce this year, according to David Lennox at Fat Prophets.

The U.S. dollar’s weakness and rising inflation are some factors that are likely to boost prices, according to the fund management company’s analyst.

Lennox says, “We…think across the course of 2022, we will see the gold price testing at the all-time record highs…”

Gold hit an all-time high of $2,063 in August 2020 and was trading at $1,806 at Wednesday’s close in the New York spot market — before settling back to $1,789 yesterday after investors cashed in on some profits.

Market Report: Poor start to New Year

by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney:

Gold and silver got off to a poor start in the New Year, with gold down $35 and silver down $1.10 in the first week of trading. In morning European trade today, gold was at $1794 and silver at $22.20.

Interestingly, Open Interest on Comex for Wednesday and Thursday jumped by 19,000 contracts to a provisional 521,502 yesterday, which tells us that it is not hedge funds being spooked out of the market: if that was the case, we would see falling OI. The next chart illustrates the position.

Silver Mining, History & Culture

by Jesse Day, Sprott Money:

Silver has been used as a form of currency by humanity throughout civilization, stretching back to the rise, and eventual fall, of the Roman Empire. Although most people tend to think of Silver as gold’s poor sibling, the stunning truth is that Silver is the second most used resource on planet earth, with only king oil standing above it in the commodity hierarchy.

Silver plays a critical role in constructing all kinds of infrastructure and is a key component in the generation of electricity. Suffice to say, without Silver, we would live in a very different and probably less technologically advanced world.