from Peter Schiff:
by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney:
Why is it that no one defends free markets, and socialism, despite all the evidence of its failures, comes back again and again? Unsurprisingly, the answer lies in politics, which have always led to a boom-bust cycle of collective behaviour. Furthering our understanding of this phenomenon is timely because the old advanced economies, burdened by a combination of existing and future debt, appear to be on the verge of an unhappily coordinated bust. But that does not automatically return us to the free markets some of us long for.
by John Carney, Breitbart:
The U.S. government spent $984 billion more than it collected in taxes and fees in fiscal year 2019, the Treasury Department said Friday.
That represents a 26 percent increase over last year’s $779 billion budget deficit.
When spending exceeds tax collections, as it has every year since 2002, the U.S. government borrows the difference. Interest rates on Treasurys have plummeted this year, suggesting that investors in the U.S. and abroad are eager to buy U.S. debt. A year ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was around 3.2 percent. It has since fallen to around 1.8 percent.
by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:
By July of last year, just three stocks (Amazon, Netflix and Microsoft) were responsible for 71% of the S&P 500’s returns.
Through the third quarter, tech stocks were responsible for 95% of the S&P’s gains.
And we long warned about the follies of blindly investing your capital into these incredibly popular and often overvalued firms (we also advised you to start raising cash).
by Mac Slavo, SHTF Plan:
The unemployment rate has been a perfect forecaster of a recession in the past 70 years, and it appears to be edging closer to triggering that signal. “It’s never been wrong. It’s something to watch,” said Joseph Lavorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis.
As the unemployment rate hovers around 4% (the number reported in the mainstream media) a more accurate unemployment number is 8.1%. This takes into account those who have given up on finding work and those who are underemployed (workers who are part-time but want full-time employment), This more accurate unemployment number is called the U-6, while we often hear the U-3 reported on the news. But even former Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says the U-6 is a much more accurate indicator of where things are with regards to the economy.
by Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds:
I’m seeing lifestyles that are out of stock and no longer available, even in China.
Though every recession is unique, all recessions manifest in similar ways in the real economy. By real economy, I mean the on-the-ground economy we observe with our own eyes, as opposed to the abstract statistical model reflected in official declarations of when recessions begin and end.
One characteristic that never makes it into the abstract statistical representation of recession is the light switch phenomenon: business suddenly dries up, as if someone turned a light switch off. This is especially visible in discretionary purchases, which include everything from smart phones to vehicles to eating out.