Wednesday, December 8, 2021

Pending Home Sales Down Again: NAR Blames “Staggering Lack of Inventory”

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by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:

The pending home sales index for July dropped 0.8 percent vs an Econodayexpected gain of 0.4{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) also revised June pending sales from +1.5{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} to +1.3{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun blames a “Staggering” Lack of Inventory.

Last month’s resurgence in pending home sales didn’t last long. Sales ended a three-month fad in June with a 1.5 percent increase in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), but it dropped back by 0.8 percent in July. The National Association of Realtors®(NAR) says its PHSI registered 109.1 percent from a downwardly revised 110.0 in June. The June index was originally reported at 110.2.

The July number was 1.3 percent lower than the PHSI a year earlier and has now fallen year-over-year in three of the last four months. NAR said the West was the only region so show a slight gain.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, continues to blame the weak market on the lack of homes for sale and called the inventory woes throughout the country “staggering.”

According to Yun, in the past five years, the national median sales price has risen 38 percent, while hourly earnings have increased less than a third of that (12 percent). This unsustainable trend is putting considerable pressure on affordability in some markets – especially for prospective first-time buyers – and is pricing out some households who would otherwise be looking to buy a home. Despite this growing obstacle, Yun says data and feedback from Realtors® continues to confirm that the slowdown in existing sales since spring is the result of a supply problem and not one of diminished demand.

The PHSI is a leading indicator for housing sales. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed; the transaction is usually expected to close within one or two months.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001 fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered normal for the current U.S. population.

Existing Home Sales 1971-Present

Read More @ MishTalk.com

INVESTORS RETURN: U.S. Silver Eagle Sales Surge Over Past Two Days

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by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco:

While interest and sentiment in the precious metals have been depressed compared to the preceding month, this all changed during the past few days.  This trend change is particularly the case for silver.  Even though Silver Eagle sales have been much weaker this year, positive signs show that investors still believe in acquiring the shiny metal when fear and uncertainty enter into the markets.

Although, Silver Eagle sales for Jan-Aug 2017 are nearly 50{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} lower than they were during the same period last year.  I believe the biggest factor that hurt Silver Eagle sales was the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President.  Many individuals in the Alternative Media think that because Trump is in the Whitehouse versus Hillary Clinton, it translates to a lot less FEAR as it pertains to the control by the elite.  Thus, the motivation to continue purchasing precious metals, bulk food, guns-ammo and survival goods has diminished considerably since the election in November.

However, when serious geopolitical events arise, investors still want to rush into owning more gold and silver.  And they did so in a BIG WAY over the past few days.

According to the updates on the U.S. Mint website, Silver Eagle sales surged by 300,000 on Monday, August 28th and another 300,000 on Tuesday, August 29th:

As we can see, Silver Eagle sales for the first three weeks of August were only 425,000, the slowest trend compared to all the previous months.  But, after the N. Korean nuclear threat, the massive flooding in Houston Texas, and the U.S. debt ceiling issue over the past week, the U.S. Mint sold 600,000 Silver Eagles in two days, surpassing the 425,000 four-week total (Aug 1st-25th).

Again, the U.S. Mint sold 300,000 Silver Eagles on Monday, August 28th and another 300,000 on Tuesday, August 29th.  They may have another update today for the past two days, but sometimes they wait until the next month to list those sales.

Regardless, that is a great deal of Silver Eagles sales over those two days.  I would imagine the crazy events over the past week were instrumental in pushing up not only the silver price but also demand for Silver Eagles.

What is also extremely interesting about the recent U.S. Mint Gold and Silver Eagle sale figures, is that the silver to gold buying ratio is now above the 100 to 1 ratio.  The U.S. Mint sold 1,025,000 Silver Eagles vs. 9,500 oz of Gold Eagles in August (so far).  Thus, the Silver to Gold Eagle sales ratio is now 108 to 1.  Which means, investors are purchasing a great deal more Silver Eagles than Gold Eagles during these tumultuous geopolitical, natural disaster and upcoming financial events.

It will be interesting to see what happens with precious metals demand and prices when the U.S. debt ceiling debate becomes an issue next month.  Also, there is speculation that there will be a significant correction in the broader stock markets this fall.  If we do see a significant correction in the broader markets, I would imagine we will see a surge in the price and demand of gold and silver.

This is exactly what happened to the precious metals at the beginning of 2016 when the Dow Jones fell 2,000 points in a relatively short period.  In just two months as the Dow Jones sold off just 2,000 points, the silver price increased 17{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}, and gold jumped 20{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}:

While the overly-inflated U.S. stock market could continue to rise even higher, at some point, it will suffer a substantial correction.  Because the U.S. govt has been propping up the markets, when this correction finally arrives, it will likely be the BIG ONE.

Read More @ SRSrocco.com

There’s literally a ‘token’ called F*ck that’s up 370{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} in the last 24-hours

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:

I vividly remember having a conversation several years ago with a woman about her real estate investments in the United States.

It must have been around 2005 or 2006… the peak of the property bubble.

She was a psychologist from somewhere in the midwest, telling me about how she was flipping off-plan condominiums in Florida.

Basically she would put money down to secure a condo unit in a building before it broke ground, then sell her contract to someone else at a higher price when the building was closer to completion.

I remember as she told me this story she was practically cackling at how quickly and easily she was doubling and tripling her money, and at one point said, “It is just soooo easy for me.”

Those words stuck.

I remember thinking, “Investing isn’t supposed to be easy. There’s supposed to be risk and hard work involved.”

But she wasn’t alone. Legions of amateur investors were piling into the market doing exactly the same thing.

Everyone seemed to be flipping condos. And everyone seemed to be making money.

It didn’t add up.

I remember one investor explaining to me how he would flip his condo contract to someone else when the building was 30{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} complete. Then that buyer would flip the contract to another investor when the building was 60{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} complete. Then another sale when the building was 80{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} complete, etc.

“But who is the person at the end of the line?” I asked. “Someone has to eventually live in all of these condos and be willing to pay the highest price.”

“Oh there will ALWAYS be plenty of people who will live here,” he told me.

To these investors it was a foregone conclusion that required zero analysis: there will always be buyers, no matter how high the price gets.

One of the marks of a good investor is learning from his/her mistakes; when an investment performs poorly, a good investor will try to figure out WHY, and incorporate those lessons into future decisions.

But a GREAT investor will learn from his/her successes.

This is rare. Perhaps it’s part of our human nature. When we succeed, we automatically conclude that we’re really smart.

We seldom examine what really happened. Did we get lucky? Were we riding the wave of a giant bubble? Or, perhaps our analysis was spot-on and we nailed it.

It’s hard to say for sure without some serious self-reflection.

But again, it’s in our nature to presume that we’re brilliant.

And that may be one of the most dangerous things of all… because our infatuation with our own brilliance causes us to do irrational things.

Instead of thinking, “Whew, I got really lucky, I’d better take some money off the table before this market crashes,” we think, “I’m so smart… now I’m going to double down and make even more money.”

It’s like gamblers at the craps table– people delude themselves into believing that they’re on a ‘hot streak’ and ‘can’t lose’, so they keep increasing their bets instead of cashing in their chips.

Eventually the luck runs out… and the money vanishes quickly.

I’m telling you all of this because I see the same thing right now in the “ICO” market.

If you haven’t heard of ICOs, it stands for Initial Coin Offering. It’s a combination of venture capital and cryptofinance.

Traditionally, startup companies have raised the money they’ve needed from angel investors and VC funds.

These days, companies are raising money by selling digital ‘tokens’ to investors, most of whom typically pay in Bitcoin, Ether, or some other cryptocurrency.

Tokens often represent shares in the startup company, just in the same way that Apple stock represents shares in Apple.

And, just like shares of Apple, investors can buy and sell their tokens in the market.

There are countless startup companies now issuing tokens. And, just like the price of the cryptocurrencies themselves, many ICOs have soared in price.

There’s a token issued by Stratis, for example, that is up 101,168{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} since its ICO last summer. The NXT token is up 672,989{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}.

Those are not type-o’s.

There’s another token that’s actually called “Fuck” which is up 370{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} in the last 24 hours.

The returns are absurd… especially considering the assets are priced in Ether or Bitcoin, which have also soared to all-time highs.

So on top of a 1,000{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} return in Bitcoin, ICO investors have also made a 100,000{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} return in the token.

But I’m hearing exactly the same cackling that I heard from the real estate bubble days more than a decade ago.

– It’s soooo easy to make money in ICOs.
– It’s a foregone conclusion that the tokens will go up in value.

Sorry, but it just doesn’t compute.

If the tokens represent ownership in a business, then the only thing that matters is whether or not the underlying business performs well.

Does the company have a compelling long-term strategic plan?

Read More @ SovereignMan.com

Ground Zero of the Next Big Commodity Boom

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by Justin Splitter, International Man:

It was the strangest raffle I’ve ever seen.

Sitting on the table was a giant jar of marijuana.

You could pick up the jar. You could inspect it from any angle. You could even smell what was inside.

You then wrote how much marijuana you thought was in it. The person with the closest guess would receive the entire jar.

It was completely absurd. I’ve never seen anything like it. But that was the scene at the Cannabis Life Conference in Vancouver recently.

You might be wondering what I’m doing in Canada…

After all, it’s a long way from Casey Research’s company headquarters in South Florida.

In short, I recently did something I’ve been waiting years to do.

I sold all my belongings…packed up a couple suitcases…and hit the road.

That’s right. I left Florida to do a worldwide “boots on the ground” tour.

I guess you could say I was inspired by Doug Casey. You see, Doug’s the original International Man. He’s been to more than 145 countries. And he’s called more than a dozen “home.”

Doug’s travels have helped him better understand the world. They’ve also led him to opportunities that he never would have known about had he stayed put like most people.

Now, I’m doing the same. I’m scouring the globe for the best investing opportunities…and bringing readers what I find.

Vancouver was the first stop on my tour…

 

I came here to get an up-close and personal look at Canada’s booming marijuana industry.

You see, the legal marijuana market in Canada is being born before our eyes. We have the rare chance to get in on the ground floor of what should be a marijuana bull market for the ages.

That’s why I went to the Cannabis Life Conference. I had to see how the industry was developing from the inside. And that raffle told me everything I needed to know…

When I got to the booth, about 15 people had entered the contest…

Guesses ranged from 80 to 130 grams.

I figured it was probably somewhere in between. So, I wrote down 111 grams.

Just so you know, I didn’t win. I also don’t know how much was in the jar. They didn’t announce the winner that day.

But here’s what I do know…

If I won that contest, they would have given me the jar. And I’m not a medical marijuana patient…or even a Canadian resident.

And that’s not even the craziest part.

The company would have shipped the marijuana directly to my doorstep…

They wouldn’t use their own driver or even a private company. They would have sent the marijuana through Canada Post, Canada’s version of the U.S. Postal Service.

If this sounds illegal, that’s because it is.

You see, recreational marijuana isn’t legal in Canada yet. That won’t happen until next July.

And yet, this company’s whole business is sending marijuana through the mail.

They’re an online marijuana store. If you were in Canada, you could order high-grade marijuana directly off their website. The marijuana would show up at your doorstep a few days later.

You don’t need to prove that you’re a medical marijuana patient, either. You just need to be at least 21 years of age.

Again, this is totally illegal.

And yet, the company’s been at this for the past four years…

It’s sent out more than 13,000 packages.

According to the sales manager I spoke with, none of those packages have been intercepted. The government leaves them alone.

Read More @ InternationalMan.com

 

More Than 60,000 People Are Calling on Trump to Designate George Soros a Terrorist

by Tim Brown, Freedom Outpost:

The infamous George Soros has been an instigator in funding some of the most corrupt politicians and some of the most seditious organizations not only in the US, but around the world.

As such, a new petition at the White House website has over 60,000 signatures calling on President Donald Trump to designate George Soros as a terrorist and seize all of his related organizations’ assets under RICO and NDAA law.

The petition was started on September 19, 2017 and has garnered 63,179 signatures since that time.

The petition reads:

Whereas George Soros has willfully and on an ongoing basis attempted to destabilize and otherwise commit acts of sedition against the United States and its citizens, has created and funded dozens (and probably hundreds) of discrete organizations whose sole purpose is to apply Alinsky model terrorist tactics to facilitate the collapse of the systems and Constitutional government of the United State, and has developed unhealthy and undue influence over the entire Democrat Party and a large portion of the US Federal government, the DOJ should immediately declare George Soros and all of his organizations and staff members to be domestic terrorists, and have all of his personal an organizational wealth and assets seized under Civil Asset Forfeiture law.

The petition must reach 100,000 signatures before being addressed by the White House.

Soros has been behind financing many of the revolutions around the world and capitalizing on the collapse of the economies of several nations.

Soros was mentioned in a 1999 Chinese military document as a “financial terrorist”.

“We believe that before long, ‘financial warfare’ will undoubtedly be an entry in the various types of dictionaries of official military jargon,” the document states, adding “The main protagonist in this section of the history book will not be a statesman or a military strategist; rather, it will be George Soros.”

The Hungarian Prime Minister has said that peace in Europe has been threatened by Goerge Soros’ “Mafia Network,” and has 

Soros has been funding the Trump travel ban protests, has been tied to those filing multiple lawsuits to stop Trump’s investigation of election discrepancies,

His son, Alexander is following in his father’s footsteps in outpacing George in giving to the Democrat National Committee and Democrats, in general, this year, while George funded lobbyists in DC to sway politics more in the first half of 2017 than all of 2016 combined.

Recently, we reported that he has funneled nearly $2 million into district attorney races in Philadelphia.

This is certainly not the first time the Soros is coming under attack.

In May, Soros was facing a $10 billion lawsuit that accused him of being a “racketeer billionaire” and manipulating the politics and economics of Guinea, a sovereign African nation, for his own benefit.

Read More @ FreedomOutpost.com

Militant Revolutionary Abolitionist Group Wants to “Expropriate” Your Property and Give It to Someone Who Deserves It (VIDEO)

by Daisy Luther, The Sleuth Journal:

The Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement is Antifa on steroids. An offshoot group that has popped up has a website with some pretty extreme ideas, including expropriation of property from their enemies. They’ve declared war against capitalism and the state, promoting “militant defense.”

Their intro says:

We situate our political movement in the context of the abolitionist struggle against slavery and continue in the tradition, from Nat Turner to the Black Liberation Movement. We believe the Civil War was never resolved and the system of slavery transitioned into the prison industrial complex. Our struggle today must begin from this starting point. Lastly, as revolutionary anarchists, the abolitionist struggle must be extended to the state and capitalism, the perpetrators of oppression. The revolutionary movement in the US today is at a cross roads, as fascist movements are expanding, and the state becomes increasingly authoritarian.

They want to build a new Underground Railroad to free people from detention, incarceration, deportation, or white supremacist violence. They welcome “comrades” to aid in their efforts to build “organized defense groups, local councils, and regional/national councils.”

Let’s set the mood with their introductory video.

I guess they’re not planning on holding hands around the campfire and singing Kumbayah.

This kind of “anarchist” should not be confused with the voluntaryist type of anarchist, who, as a group, strongly supports free market principles.

While a lot of us wish the state was not so state-y and that the police were less police-y, most rational people aren’t ready to go out and lay a beatdown on anyone they perceive as an enemy. Nor do we wish to demonize capitalism or give away all our personal property for the greater good.

The political foundation of the Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement consists of:

  • Self-Defense
  • The Neighborhood Council
  • Conflict Resolution and Revolutionary Justice
  • Abolition of Gender
  • Expropriation and the Cooperative Economy

While all of these are alarming, I’m particularly concerned about their calls for “self-defense,” “revolutionary justice,” and “expropriation.

Let’s look at what they have to say about these topics through a variety of direct quotes.

Militant Self Defense

The Revolutionary Abolitionist Movement endorses “militant” self-defense, citing the tactics of the Black Panthers, the Black Liberation Army, and the Rojava Revolution in Syria. They model themselves, particularly, after the Rojavas.

The training of these new militants is the revolutionary heart of the Rojava Revolution. The long-term intentions of the training programs are to ensure that everyone can participate in self-defense. To that extent, there are also localized training programs that arm the public for a second tier of neighborhood defense. The Self Defense Forces (HPC*) were formed for this purpose. While specific armed groups, such as the People’s Protection Units and Asayîş (YPG** and YPJ*** respectively), have been formed to fight external enemies, the HPC are civilians that get arms training with the specific goal of maintaining autonomy against internal forces that might seek to consolidate power. They are volunteers who receive both political education and self-defense training.

These armed groups are able to defend their communities from attacks without compromising revolutionary values. As the YPG and YPJ liberate ISIS territory new communities become incorporated into their political project. Rather than establish a top-down system of governance, the revolutionary movement establishes new neighborhood councils and communes, feminist education programs, and decentralized local-based militias within each liberated town. To implement this form of political organization, there is undoubtedly a give and take. While the towns receive the infrastructure necessary for self-governance, such as weapons and training from the YPG to set up their own, local defense groups, they agree to uphold certain social principles like feminism and social ecology. (source)

One tactic they endorse is, basically, beating up “Nazis.”

Anti-fascist tactics – focused primarily around the use of physical force—proved effective in forcing neo-Nazi groups out of entire neighborhoods. The tactics were simple, if they came upon a neo-Nazi, they would use sufficient force to drive them away. The network was so successful that it eventually grew to 100 chapters. By joining in a nationwide network, they were able to help spread and strengthen the model while still maintaining local control over each chapter. (source)

Of course, who gets to decide whether someone is a Nazi? Must the person be wearing a swastika t-shirt or a white hood? Or is this just an arbitrary decision based on the color of their skin or who they voted for? You can see how easily this could go downhill.

Read More @ TheSleuthJournal

The Biggest US Cities where Rents Are Plunging

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by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:

In Chicago, rents are getting crushed.

An inconvenient math for housing is beginning to dog Chicago: The third largest city in the US has been losing population for years. Not huge numbers, but it adds up… In 2016, according to the Census estimate, the population dropped by about 9,000 people. Since 2014, the population has dropped by about 14,000 people. Chicago’s fiscal woes, junk credit rating, and the threat of bankruptcy hanging over it don’t help.

Since 2012, nearly 26,000 multifamily rental units have been completed in the city, according to Fannie Mae, which for 2017 sees “elevated volume of new supply, particularly in the Loop/River North/Gold Coast submarkets.” This does not include condos and single-family homes that were bought by investors and have reappeared on the rental market. Over the same five-year period, Chicago’s population has dropped by 9,000 people.

This has some effects on rents.

According to Zumper’s National Rent Report for August, the median asking rent in Chicago dropped by 13.7{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} year-over-year to $1,510 for a one-bedroom apartment, and by 15.7{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} to $2,200 for a two-bedroom. From their peaks in late 2015, asking rents have plunged 26{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} and 17{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} respectively.

These are asking rents in multifamily apartment buildings. Single-family houses or condos for rent are not included. And they do not include incentives, such as “one month free” or “two months free,” which effectively slash the rent for the first year by another 8{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} or 17{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}.

In January this year, Chicago was still in 8th place on the list of the 12 most expensive major rental markets. It has since been pushed down relentlessly – though other markets too have declined. And in August, Chicago was effectively pushed off the list into 13th place (so now my list of the top 12 has 13 entries).

This offers some relief for renters – though Chicago remains immensely expensive. But it’s not such a great thing for landlords whose costs are rising due to various fees and taxes the City has recently imposed to avoid falling into its fiscal sinkhole.

Other high-dollar luminaries where rents fell.

In San Francisco, the most expensive major rental market in the US, the median asking rent for a one-bedroom apartment dropped 1.5{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} year-over-year to $3,390 and is down 7.6{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} from the peak in October 2015. For a two-bedroom, the median asking rent dropped 5.0{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} year-over-year to $4,560 and is down 8.8{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} from the peak.

The last period of year-over-year declines in San Francisco ended in April 2010 after the Financial Crisis. This time, there is only a “Housing Crisis,” where the middle class can no longer afford to move into a modest apartment.

In New York City, the median asking rent for a one-bedroom dropped 8.9{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} year-over-year to $2,850. For two-bedrooms, it dropped 8.3{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}. Measured from the peak in March 2016, asking rents — not including incentives — have plunged 15{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} and 20{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}.

Given that plunge, New York City’s median asking rent for a two-bedroom has dropped below Washington DC to an ignominious third/fourth place, shared with Los Angeles, which also tells you how expensive DC and LA are becoming.

This table of the 12, well 13 now, most expensive major rental markets in the US shows median asking rents, their year-over-year changes, and (in the shaded areas) the prior record and the change since then:

Read More @ WolfStreet.com

GOLD SURGES $8.35 ONCE OPTIONS EXPIRY CEASES WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS. IN THE ACCESS MARKET GOLD RISES ANOTHER $8.00 TO $1322.50 AND SILVER RISES ANOTHER 9 CENTS TO $17.60

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE HEADING TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN EASTERN USA COAST

GOLD: $1316.85 UP   $8.35

Silver: $17.51  UP 7 CENT(S)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1321.50

silver: $17.60

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1308.57 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1322.55

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $6.02

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1311.37

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1302.90

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.47

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1305.80

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1306.70

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1311.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1312.10

For comex gold:

SEPTEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 40 NOTICE(S) FOR  4000  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 40 FOR 4000 OZ  (0.1244 TONNES)

For silver:

SEPTEMBER

 

 2181 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

 

10,905,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2181 for 10,905,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

end

I wrote this yesterday:

“As I expected, the criminal bankers tried their best to keep gold and silver from rising so as to pocket underwritten options.  However they did not succeed in lowering the price of gold to $1300.00 and $17.25 silver where the bulk of options were underwritten. London based gold/silver options have an expiry tomorrow morning at around 10 -11 am.  After that we should see our precious metals rise.”  I guess I was right on that one!!

I did not expect a 2 billion dollar notional comex flash crash coming in the early hours of the evening last night.  However I was happy that the gold and silver rebounded beautifully.  I am comforted that the bankers could not cash any of the underwritten options which expired at 10 am this morning. Tomorrow is the dreaded non farm payrolls. This report is fabricated to the highest degree. However if the report is bad even with the fake numbers, gold/silver will be off to the races.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY AN APPRECIABLE 4480 contracts from 188,145 DOWN TO 178,343 DESPITE A TINY LOSS IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK WITH  YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 1 CENT). WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE TENDERING OF SEPT LONG COMEX SILVER INTO EFP’S WHICH GIVES THE PAPER PLAYERS A FIAT GAIN PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT BUT ON A DIFFERENT EXCHANGE.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS. WE CERTAINLY HAD NEWBIE LONGS ENTER THE ARENA WITH SHORT COVERING FROM THE BANKERS.  HOWEVER THE EFPS OUTNUMBERED THE NEWBIE LONGS

RESULT: A HIGH DROP IN OI COMEX  DESPITE A ONE CENT PRICE DROP AND A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN SEPT EFP’S DELIVERABLE SILVER i.e.LONDON FORWARDS

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.891 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 127{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 2181 NOTICE(S) FOR 10,905,000OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 3083 CONTRACTS WITH THE FALL  in price of gold ($5.00 LOSS YESTERDAY). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 534,892.

AS IN SILVER, THE GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE WITH TRUMP THREATENING TO CLOSE GOVERNMENT IF HE DID NOT GET HIS WALL , THE DOVISH SPEECHES BY BOTH DRAGHI AND YELLEN ON FRIDAY AT JACKSON HOLE, THE HOUSTON FLOODING & NORTH KOREA FIRING MORE MISSILES CAUSED A HUGE NUMBER OF NEWBIE SPECS TO AGAIN ENTER THE GOLD ARENA WITH THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER LIKE DRUNKEN SAILORS. ONCE 1300 DOLLAR GOLD WAS PIERCED, MORE NEWBIE LONGS CAME EMBOLDENED CONTINUING THEIR QUEST OF TAKING ON THE BANKERS WHO RECIPROCATED IN KIND WITH  SHORT PAPER. SINCE TODAY IS OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY, ONE COULD HAVE BET THE FARM THAT THE BANKERS WOULD ATTACK. THEY PRESSED DURING YESTERDAY’S ACCESS MARKET AND THEN BANG, EARLY LAST NIGHT, ANOTHER FLASH CRASH WITH 2 BILLION DOLLARS IN NOTIONAL PAPER GOLD SENT GOLD CRASHING DOWN TO $1296. HOWEVER OUR ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS  RECOVERED SLOWLY BUT SURELY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND THEN BLASTED FIRMLY INTO THE POSITIVE ONCE OPTIONS EXPIRY CEASED.

Result: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI WITH THE BIGGER FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD COUPLED WITH A RAID ON WEDNESDAY AND A BIGGER FLASH CRASH LAST NIGHT. 

we had: 40 notice(s) filed upon for 40,00 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Tonight , we had no  changes in gold inventory:

Inventory rests tonight: 816.43 tonnes

IN THE LAST 34 TRADING DAYS: GLD SHEDS 20.54 TONNES YET GOLD IS HIGHER BY $84.60 .

SLV

Today:  STRANGE!! WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.019 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.178 MILLION OZ

 

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A LARGE 4480 contracts from 188,145 DOWN TO 178,343 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH YESTERDAY’S 1 CENT LOSS IN TRADING. SILVER RESPONDED TO 1) THE GEOPOLITICAL CLIMATE WHEREBY TRUMP THREATENED TO SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT UNLESS HE GOT HIS WALL , 2) THE TWO DOVISH SPEECHES BY YELLEN 3) NORTH KOREA FIRING MORE MISSILES,4) THE HOUSTON FLOODING AND 5 THE PIERCING OF THE HUGE RESISTANCE LEVEL OF $17.25 WHICH NOW BECOMES THE NEW SUPPORT LEVEL. WE NO DOUBT HAD IN EXCESS OF 4,000 LONG SEPT. SILVER PLAYERS TENDERING THEIR LONGS FOR SEPT. EFP’S (BUT THAT OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS BUT ON A DIFFERENT EXCHANGE LONDON). NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA WHEN THEY SAW ANOTHER FAILED RAID ATTEMPT. HOWEVER THE GAIN IN NEWBIE LONGS WAS FAR LESS THAN THOSE PAPER PLAYERS EXITING FOR EFP’S. THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED A FLASH CRASH ON BOTH GOLD AND SILVER LAST NIGHT IN A VAIN ATTEMPT TO CAUSE UNDERWRITTEN OPTIONS CONTRACTS TO EXPIRE WORTHLESS. THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO COVER SOME OF THEIR SHORTS AS THEY ARE STILL LOATHE TO SUPPLY ANY ADDITIONAL PAPER. THE FLASH CRASH RAID FAILED AS BOTH METALS SKYROCKETED TO THE POSITIVE LEVEL NEGATING THE BANKERS FROM PROFITING FROM THEIR UNDERWRITTEN OPTIONS..

RESULT:  A  MUCH LOWER OI AT THE COMEX, BUT A CORRESPONDING TRANSFER TO EFP’S IN LONDON WITH MUCH SHORT COVERING FROM THE BANKERS. 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 2.81 POINTS OR 0.08{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}   / /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 124.31 POINTS OR 0.44{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/ The Nikkei closed UP 139.70 POINTS OR 0.72{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.74{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6010/Oil UP to 46.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.05 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades  6.6069 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6010 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED SLIGHTLY WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE  STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY

Read More @ HarveyOrganBlog.com

Reality On Flood Policies

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by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:

Want to know why flood insurance coverage has decreased so much?

WASHINGTON (AP) — Houston’s population is growing quickly, but when Harvey hit last weekend there were far fewer homes and other properties in the area with flood insurance than just five years ago, according to an Associated Press investigation.

The sharp, 9 percent drop in coverage means many residents fleeing Harvey’s floodwaters have no financial backup to fix up their homes and will have to draw on savings or go into debt — or perhaps be forced to sell.

It’s not hard to figure out.

It’s not like every firm that sells homeowners and renters insurance doesn’t know and make a commission selling flood insurance.  Nor that they don’t issue warnings — they do, on the face of every policy.

No, the problem is that if you’re in other than a special-hazard area flood insurance is not required to get a mortgage and when more than 70{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} of the population lives paycheck to paycheck they simply can’t afford it.

This is what the health scam has done to people.  It’s what offshoring jobs has done to people.  It’s what unlimited deficits and doubling of the national debt has done to people.

They simply don’t have the damn money which makes the entire argument about whether someone “wants” to buy flood insurance moot — they don’t have the money to pay for it.

Of course it doesn’t help that NFIP premiums have been going up — quite a lot.  That has a lot to do with losses, and unfortunately rather than monkey-hammer those people who built and live in special hazard areas, where those losses are both insured and more-frequent (remember, NFIP doesn’t care about uninsured losses as that doesn’t hit their accounts) they have “spread the pain” to those who don’t live in such special hazard areas and thus have lower risk.

My flood coverage (never flooded, and grandfathered into “no special hazard”) has gone up 44{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} since 2011 alone!

Yes, NFIP runs at a loss today.  But it largely runs at a loss because of people inside special-hazard areas who are insured and take losses, sometimes repeated losses, because most people who are not in special-hazard areas don’t buy the insurance.

Now they’re whining about people who don’t buy it and aren’t in special hazard areas, saying they “should have” now that they’re facing (probable catastrophic) losses in the greater Houston area.

Well, duh!  The program has forced those not in those special-hazard areas to subsidize those who are!

Just as with so-called “health insurance” when you force well people to pay sick people’s bills they will stop if they’re legally able to do so, risk be damned, because you are stealing from those who are not taking higher risks to subsidize those who are.

The utter stupidity displayed in the referenced article is astounding.  The answer to this problem is to rate the special-hazard areas appropriately, grandfather those who weren’t in special risk areas (but are remapped later) so you don’t force someone out of their house after they buy it and for those who do buy or build in a special hazard areas charge premiums commensurate with actuarial risk.

My risk of being flooded did not go up by 44{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} over the last six years and the $250,000 building / $100,000 contents insurance limit (which is all you can buy through NFIP) has not gone up either.  What has gone up (by 43{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}) is the forced subsidy of people who are in special-hazard zones and thus are forced to buy flood insurance in order to get a mortgage by those of us (like myself) who intentionally bought a building at or above base flood hazard elevation (in other words, no special risk) but want the coverage anyway.

This forced subsidy by people just like myself along with the repeated financial******served upon everyone for so-called “health insurance” and similar racketeering schemes has made buying NFIP policies for those who do not live in said special risk areas increasingly unaffordable and thus the rate of such insurance coverage has gone down materially.

Read More @ Market-Ticker.org