Saturday, October 31, 2020

Why U.S. GDP Hasn’t Really Increased Since 2000

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by Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco:

While official sources forecast U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to surpass $20 trillion this year, the real figure is probably much less.  So how much less is real U.S. GDP?  Well, that depends on how it is measured.  If we factor in energy consumption and the increase in total public debt, U.S. GDP is likely less than half of the current figure.

Yes, it sounds insane to say that the current U.S. GDP is likely overstated by at least 50%, but if we go by fundamental data, it isn’t that crazy at all.  Unfortunately, Americans have been conditioned to believe that money grows on trees and energy comes from the Wizard of Oz.  Thus, if we need more money, then the U.S. Treasury can print more Federal Reserve Notes, or we can swipe the credit card.  And, if we need electricity, we just switch on the light.  Easy… Peasy.

Due to the highly complex nature of the world in which we live in today, the individual is clueless as to the tremendous amount of energy and work that it takes to produce the foods we eat and the goods, energy, and materials we consume.  So, it should be no surprise that U.S. GDP can be overstated by 50%+.

If we go by the data that shows the growth of Global GDP is related to the growth of Global Oil Supply, then it is very quite easy to spot inflated GDP figures.  However, you have to be able to understand this essential ENERGY=GDP relationship.  Of course, this is not taught in business or economic classes in high school or college. Instead, the economic teachers focus on the insane theory of SUPPLY vs. DEMAND.  If individuals are taught GARBAGE, then their thinking and reasoning is GARBAGE.  So, we really can’t blame them.

In looking at the following chart by Gail Tverberg, the increase in Global GDP corresponds to the rise in Global Oil Supply:

As the annual growth percentage of World Oil Supply declined in the periods shown in the chart above, the same trend took place in World GDP.  If we can understand the OIL-GDP relationship figures in the chart, then it is impossible for a country to grow its GDP if it does not increase its energy consumption.

A perfect example of a country that increased both its energy consumption and GDP, is China.  We can clearly see that as China’s total energy consumption increased from 2000 to 2011, so did its GDP:

Read More @ SRSrocco.com

50 Shades of Silver: How to Diversify Your Holdings, Juice Your Returns, and More

by Jeff Clark, GoldSilver:

One of the more common questions we get about silver, and maybe one you’ve wondered about yourself, is, “Is there a reason I should buy physical silver other than Silver Eagles?”

Yes: Diversification. And the reason you may want to diversify is because not all silver products serve the same purpose. For example, some forms of bullion…

  • Offer potentially bigger gains (and like any higher-reward-potential investment, higher risk levels too)
  • Are more popular in different parts of the world
  • May fetch a bigger premium upon resale
  • Are better suited for international diversification
  • Are less expensive to purchase
  • Are less likely to be targeted in a confiscation or change in regulation
  • May require an assay to sell
  • Are less expensive to store
  • Have stronger messaging or significance
  • Make for better gifts
  • Are not eligible for IRAs

There are other distinctions, but the point is that diversification of your silver holdings can assure that you have the right form of bullion for the right purpose. It can help assure that you fully participate in the bull market. It could potentially keep you from getting wiped out if the only form of bullion you hold doesn’t perform the way you expected. It can even give you the opportunity to outperform the silver spot price itself.

If you don’t own any physical silver, I can tell you there’s nothing quite like it. Pure silver isn’t just visually captivating; it’s mankind’s oldest form of money. In fact, silver has been used as currency more often than gold. You can sense why when you hold a silver bullion coin in the palm of your hand.

And since the silver price acts like gold on steroids, it’s almost certain to reach new all-time highs in the next crisis. We can’t tell you exactly how high it’ll go, but the potential exists for it to be one of the greatest investments in modern history.  

If you want to make sure you participate in the next silver rush, and would like to consider ways to diversify your holdings for both safety and profit, we present our 50 Shades of Silver list to help you decide how to round out your holdings.

Sovereign Coins

A sovereign coin is basically one produced by a government mint and is considered investment-grade silver. They have several advantages over other “bullion” coins.

First, they come with a guarantee of both purity and content, and also have a face value. Those values are mostly symbolic at this point, since silver sells at much higher prices today, but it does mean the sponsoring government guarantees it will always accept the coin at its face value.

A sovereign coin is your starting point, because it will always track the price of silver. Nothing more, nothing less. It contains no other metals and is not subject to the whims of the rare-coin market. That’s good, because the last thing we’d want as investors is to watch the price of silver soar but not see our coin’s value track it, which can sometimes happen with a numismatic coin. That’s not a worry with a sovereign bullion coin.

A sovereign coin is also IRA-eligible. Those rules can be tricky—and costly if you stick the wrong product in your retirement account. You don’t have that worry if you buy the sovereigns from our list below.

Last, a sovereign coin is highly liquid, meaning it’s easy to sell. If you need to convert to currency, you won’t hear something like “we don’t buy those.” Almost any dealer in the world will buy them from you.

Lots of advantages. Here are your choices…

The US Mint produces the Silver Eagle coin, which has a purity of .999%, and comes with a face value of $1. They’re guaranteed by the US government, and the design does not change from year to year. They are ideal for US investors, and provide excellent diversification for all investors due to their worldwide acceptance.

[Click on the link to get more details about each product.]

1. 1-Ounce Silver Eagle, Current Year . This one-ounce coin from the US Mint is probably the most recognizable silver coin in the world. It is what Mike Maloney primarily buys.

2. 1-Ounce Silver Eagle, Common Date . This simply means you’ll let us choose the mint years for you. We fill your order from the lowest priced stock of coins available. The years will vary—they may be mixed or all the same. The advantage here is that they’re less expensive than specific or current year coins, yet still contain one ounce of silver.

3. Silver Eagle Mint Case . A case of 500 one-ounce silver Eagles, also known as a Monster Box, is the lowest-cost way to buy them. A sealed mint case contains 25 tubes of 20 coins, along with an audit slip signed and dated by a US Mint representative. This is the #1-selling product at GoldSilver.

The Royal Canadian Mint has been in production since 1908, and produces a beautiful one-ounce silver coin. Their purity is .9999%, with a face value of $5 Canadian, both higher than Eagles. They’re backed by the Commonwealth of Canada, and the design does not change. They are ideal if you live in Canada, yet have wide popularity around the world and thus offer excellent diversification for any bullion investor.

4. 1-Ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, Current Year . This beautiful coin is one of the most advanced bullion coins on the planet: It comes with the Royal Canadian Mint’s anti-counterfeiting technology called Bullion DNA (Digital Non-destructive Activation), which captures images of the coins, encrypts them with an algorithmic signature, and stores them in a secure database, allowing authenticity to be verified in an instant. GoldSilver is an authorized Bullion DNA dealer for the Royal Canadian Mint. Silver Maple Leafs also now come with MintShield™, a surface protectant that significantly reduces the occurrence of white spots on silver bullion. Check out the video in the link for these advanced features. All this and the premium is usually lower than for Eagles. You simply can’t go wrong buying the new silver Maple Leaf.

5. 1-Ounce Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, Common Date . Like the Eagle, choosing a random year coin is less expensive than the newest issue.

6. Silver Maple Leaf Mint Case . This 500-coin case comes with 20 tubes of 25 coins each. It is the cheapest way to buy Maples Leafs, and is usually a few hundred dollars less than a mint case of Eagles.

The Austrian Mint in Vienna has been striking coins for over 800 years, and has sold over 80 million Silver Philharmonics since they were first minted in 2008. These one-ounce coins have a purity of .999 fine silver, are backed by the Republic of Austria, and have a 1.50-euro face value. It is Europe’s #1 bullion coin and is very well-known across the globe.

7. 1-Ounce Austrian Silver Philharmonic, Current Year . This beautiful coin is less expensive in North America than the Eagle but costs more than the Maple Leaf. Hold this coin in your hand and you can imagine sitting in the Golden Hall (the coin’s front) listening to Mozart, Schubert, Strauss, or Haydn.

8. 1-Ounce Austrian Silver Philharmonic, Common Date . This coin offers an excellent bargain; it’s currently over $1 less than the newest-year coin!

9. Silver Philharmonic Mint Case . Like other monster boxes, this case contains 500 ounces of pure silver, packaged in 25 tubes of 20 coins each.

The Perth Mint is one of Western Australia’s biggest exporters, and one of its most popular exports is now the Silver Kangaroo coin even though production only began in 2016. It is .9999 pure silver, and is legal tender in Australia, with a face value of 1 Australian dollar. The design of the Silver Kangaroo does not change from year to year (though the Gold Kangaroo’s does). Also noteworthy is that the Silver Kangaroo has a spectacular high-relief design, making it very eye-appealing. And like the Maple Leaf, it comes with an authentication feature that makes it difficult to counterfeit.

Read More @ GoldSilver.com

Will Italy’s Banking Crisis Spawn a New Frankenbank?

from Don Quijones, Wolf Street:

“Operation Overlord.”

There are rumors currently doing the rounds that Italy’s banking problems have finally been put to rest. The FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Index has soared about 40% over the last 12 months, about double the advance by the Euro Stoxx Banks Index. Six of the top seven gainers in the latter index this year are Italian.

The story of Italy’s non-performing loans, which just a year ago terrified global investors and posed a systemic threat to the entire Eurozone economy, “is over,” according to Fabrizio Pagani, the chief of staff at Italy’s Ministry of Economy and Finance. Pagani believes that now that the banking sector is well and truly on the mend, work should begin to take consolidation of the sector to a new level.

“There are too many banks,” Pagani told Bloomberg. “And in this sense, Monte dei Paschi could play a role. I think this could start this year.”

There’s clearly lots of room for consolidation in Italy, home to roughly 500 banks, many of which are small local or regional savings banks with tens or hundreds of millions of euros in assets. At the top end of the scale, Italy’s ten biggest banks control roughly 50% of the industry. The goal is to increase thatto 70-75% to bring it more in line with the levels of banking concentration in other EU countries. In Spain, for example, the five biggest banks — Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Bankia and Sabadell — control 72% of the market.

The problem is that, while last year’s bail out of Monte dei Paschi di Siena may have restored a certain amount of investor confidence to Italy’s banking sector, many of the largest banking groups are still extremely fragile, with stubbornly high non-performing loan (NPL) ratios. Even Intesa Sanpaolo, which is widely regarded as Italy’s most stable large bank, had a bad-loan ratio of 13% at the end of September, compared to a European average of 4.5%.

As such, trying to find suitable merger partners that are not going to drag each other further down is not going to be an easy task. Intesa is still trying to digest tens of billions of assets from Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca, the two mid-size collapsed banks it gobbled up at the government’s insistence in June last year. As for Unicredit, Italy’s only global systemically important bank (G-SIB), it’s barely back on its own two feet after successfully completing the biggest ever capital expansion in Italian history last year.

So, if the two biggest banks are most likely out of the equation for now, who could Pagani be thinking about? For the moment he says it’s too early to say.

But while Pagani keeps mum, Giovanni Razzoli, an analyst at Equita SIM, has identified five potential suitors — Monte dei Paschi di Siena (now majority owned by the State), Banco BPM, BPER Banca, Credito Valtellinese and Banca Carige — that could be merged into one mega-bank. He’s even given his masterplan a name, with suitably dark undertones: Project Overlord.

Three of the banks have one obvious thing in common: they have all been, or are in the process of being, rescued, either by taxpayers or shareholders, or a combination of both.

Despite being bailed out with €8.5 billion of taxpayer funds last year, in contravention of new EU rules on banking resolution, Monte dei Paschi is still far from out of the woods. In early February the bank reported total losses in 2017 of €3.5 billion, as a result of falling revenue, loan write-downs, and one-off charges. Since then its stock, which resumed trading on Oct. 25 after a 10-month hiatus, has tumbled over 15%. Now valued at €3.18, the shares are 51% below the €6.49 that Italian taxpayers paid during the latest rescue.

Then there’s mid-sized lender Carige, with assets of €26 billion. In December it completed a €500 million share issue that very nearly flopped. Together with a completed exchange of subordinated bonds into senior bonds and ongoing asset disposals, the capital increase is expected to raise about €1 billion of capital, according to rating agency Moody’s. The proceeds will largely be used to write down and then dispose of €1.9 billion of problem loans.

Credito Valtellinese (or Creval) is in a similar situation having reported a €332 million loss for 2017 in preparation for its own €700 million rights issue. Since then its shares have tumbled from €0.16 to €0.11 cents.

In other words, Operation Overload would involve joining at the hip three banks that are barely capable of standing on their own two feet, even with all the public and/or private support they’ve received, with two other banks — one of which (Banco BPM) is barely a year old after being spawned from the merger last year of two large cooperative banks, Banco Popolare and BPM.

For an indication of what could ensue one need only recall what happened to Spain’s very own frankenbank, Bankia, which was created in 2010 by melding together six failing regional savings banks with a larger and seemingly healthier lender, Caja Madrid. Less than a year after its public launch, in 2011, Bankia collapsed in such emphatic style that, to be reanimated, it needed the biggest ever public bailout in Spanish history.

Read More @ WolfStreet.com

The Failure of Fiat Currencies

by Tom Lewis, Gold Telegraph:

We work hard for our money, as we think it has long-lasting value. That value can buy us other things that we want. It seems like a good exchange. However, few of us consider how extrinsic the value of money really is. In reality, we are dealing in valueless fiat currencies. 

At one time, our money was backed by the tangible value of gold or other precious metals, legal tender for anything of equal value.

That is not the case any longer. The value of a dollar bill these days is what the government says it is. This arbitrary value is dependent on the whim of the government. And the government can print money like a copy machine run amok. There are no limits to how much money can be put into circulation. That is because this money isn’t backed by any real value, it’s called fiat currency.

The US dollar became fiat currency when it stopped being backed by gold over 46 years ago and it has lost 97 percent of its value since the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Apart from cryptocurrencies, all the world’s major countries are using fiat currency.

Since Roman times, fiat money has failed spectacularly throughout history due to the same pattern of rapid devaluation and then total collapse. The Romans used a 100 percent pure silver coin called the denarius at the start of the first century. By mid-century, during Nero’s rule, the denarius only contained 94% silver. By 100 A.D., the silver content had been reduced to 85%. The value of the coin was decreasing steadily. This worked well for Nero and his followers, who no longer had to pay their debt at the full, actual value while additionally increasing their own wealth. During the next century, the coin was made of less than 50% silver. By 244, Emperor Philip the Arab had reduced the amount of silver in the denarius to 0.05%. When the Roman Empire finally fell, the denarius contained only 0.02% of silver.

The devaluation of currency invariably is the precursor to economic ruin.

 

The devaluation of currency invariably is the precursor to economic ruin.

China was the first country to use paper money in the 7th century. Until that time, they used copper coins but switched to iron due to a copper shortage. The easy availability of iron caused it to be overissued, until it too, collapsed. During the 11th century, a Szechuan bank began to issue paper currency in exchange for the iron currency. This worked briefly since the paper could be traded for rare, valuable metals, such as gold and silver, or for valuable silk. Then, China entered into a costly war with Mongolia and was eventually defeated by the Mongol leader, Genghis Khan. In an effort at expansion, Genghis’s grandson, Kublai Khan, started to flood paper money throughout the empire. As China’s trade increased, the influx of fiat paper – currency backed by no value – caused even the wealthiest of families to be ruined.

France may be the only country that has been defeated by fiat money three times. The Sun King, Louis XIV, left his successor heavily in debt. Poor Louis XV took the advice of the Scottish economist John Law and simply flooded the country with paper currency instead of the previously acceptable coins. The paper money devalued the actually valuable coins, causing the heir to the Sun King to bankrupt his own country. Yet France didn’t learn its lesson well the first time. More than 100 years later, France gave paper money another try, creating an inflationary spiral of 13,000 percent. Napoleon, and the introduction of a gold-backed Franc came to the rescue. Was France now convinced of the negative effects of fiat currency? Not quite. In the 1930’s, paper currency was again issued, causing inflation to devalue the paper Franc by 99% in 12 years.

Another country faced with huge, unmanageable, and unpayable debt was post-WWI Germany. Germany did not learn from history. Instead, it created a state of unheard of hyperinflation. One hundred and thirty printing companies churned out paper money as fast as they could, devaluing the German Mark so much that its only real value was to be used as kindling.

America has a long history with fiat currency, starting with the Massachusetts Colonial notes of the 1600s. Other colonies quickly followed suit. The notes were to be redeemable for tangible goods, but they weren’t backed by any tangible commodity. Repeating a long, historical sequence of events, too many printed notes soon made the currency worthless. America’s next venture into unbacked paper currency was to finance the Revolutionary War. It, too, crashed.

It seemed American might finally have learned a lesson. Up until 1913, American currency was rigorously backed with actual gold. The establishment of the Federal Reserve Bank that year reduced the amount of gold officially backing the dollar. Owning gold became illegal. In 1971, any gold standard was eliminated as the US dollar officially became another piece of paper. Its value has decreased by 92% since 1913.

With history being the best indicator of the future, America is primed for another currency collapse.

We are facing a debt as out-of-control as Weimar Germany while the government keeps the printing presses busy. At this time, China and Russia are supporting their respective currencies with gold. In addition, both countries are using a new money transfer system, CIPS (China International Payment System), to replace the western SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system.

Western countries, all of whom use SWIFT for money transfers, have had a monopoly on the manipulation of international money transfers. With Washington and SWIFT’s help, hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer was able force a debt-ridden Argentina to pay 20 cents on the dollar for his bonds, valued at $3 billion, making it virtually impossible for Argentina to pay its other debtors.

Read More @ GoldTelegraph.com

Ron Paul: ‘The Fed Is At A Crossroads…Crisis Is Coming’

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by Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:

The Fed has created a mountain of problems for everyone in the United States and every single solution that they come up with leads to even more problems. Ron Paul recently discussed what the Fed has done, how it tries to keep things going, and the inevitable economic crisis that is coming.

Ron Paul has been one of the few steadfast proponents of liberty, which is likely why he’s no longer associated with the government at all. In a recent video, Paul discussed the problems the Federal Reserve created and why their solutions will generate an economic crisis of epic proportions.

“They [The Fed] have a lot of power, but their main goal is to do central economic planning which always fails. It’s also a gimmick because they have meetings, they are supposed to have eight a year, and then there’s a big announcement…they come out and they make a statement and the chairman is interviewed, and then, later on, you get the minutes. It’s big fanfare. But I see it as mostly propaganda, just carrying a message. Getting it from the people who really run things, the deep state, and they get it out there. But it does have a lot of effect on the market. I actually believe that there are some people who know how fictitious the Fed really is and how inept it is, but still watch it because they know a lot of other people are going to pay attention…the deep state is not a part of the government, but they have a lot of influence.”

Paul went on to explain that often we are told it’s not right to criticize the Fed. But that will change.

“The next downturn, which I think will come soon, the Fed’s not going to get credit for getting us out of it. They didn’t get any credit for getting us out this last recession which we’re really, in many ways, still in…times are different. But times are getting much worse now. This next downturn is going to be a serious one and the Fed doesn’t have any magic whatsoever…central economic planning never works no matter how long they get away with it.”

And something we’ve heard from top financial experts such as Peter Schiff, Paul also says there’s a trend to ditch the dollar, which will lead to its collapse.

Read More @ SHTFPlan.com

“They’re Finally Accepting Reality” – Manhattan Landlords Are Slashing Rents To Fill Vacant Storefronts

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from ZeroHedge:

Owners of Manhattan’s commercial real-estate might soon begin to regret their decision to hike rents to absurdly high levels in the hope of attracting the next Chase, Bank of America or Duane Reade capable of paying their extortionate prices.

As Bloomberg reports, owners of prime retail storefronts in the heart of Soho – a trendy shopping district in downtown Manhattan – are struggling to find and retain tenants willing to pay the record rents being demanded by landlords.

The Bloomberg story begins by recounting the story of one boutique clothing shop that threatened to vacate its space six years early and just eat its security deposit unless the landlord agreed to a lower rate.

The Kooples, a French clothing seller, is threatening to vacate its space six years ahead of schedule if it can’t get landlord Thor Equities to cut the rent. With brick-and-mortar stores suffering from a retail industry shakeout, the company says it isn’t making enough money at the property and wants to focus on the web.

The scene unfolding on the cobblestones of one of New York’s trendiest shopping areas shows the increasingly fraught negotiations between tenants and landlords as vacancies soar and retail rents plunge. Similar scenarios are playing out along Madison Avenue to the north and along other thoroughfares in the city that have long been a draw for those shopping for designer clothing and other luxury goods. Property owners are confronting demands once unheard of in Manhattan, from rent reductions to short-term leases.

Read More @ ZeroHedge.com

DOW DOWN 381 POINTS/NASDAQ DOWN 57 POINTS AND THIS WAS THE WORST FEBRUARY SINCE 2009

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

GOLD DOWN 70 CENTS AT $1316.70/SILVER DOWN ANOTHER 5 CENTS TO $16.38/JAPAN RECORDS HUGE PLUNGE IN RETAIL SALES AND ALSO A HUGE FALL IN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION/CHINA SUFFERS HUGE FALLS IN BOTH OF THEIR PMI/THE USA’S BEA LOWERS ESTIMATES OF Q4 GDP DOWN TO 2.5%/MORE SWAMP STORIES

GOLD: $1316.70 down $0.70

Silver: $16.38 down 5 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1318.30

silver: $16.42

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1342.38 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1334.10

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.28

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1337.74

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1318.70

PREMIUM SECOND FIX /NY:$19.04

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1332.75

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1333.70

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1317.85

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1318.10

For comex gold:

MARCH/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR:2749 FOR 274900 OZ (8.5505 TONNES),

For silver:

MARCH

3507 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

NIL OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3507 for 17,535,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $10,540/OFFER $10,610: DOWN $3.00(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $10,628/offer $10,698: UP $85  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today\

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1344 contracts from 191,999  RISING TO 193,343 DESPITE  YESTERDAY’S 17 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD ZERO COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  324 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND AND 2325 EFP’S FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2649 CONTRACTS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2649 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2649 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.245 MILLION OZ DESPITE  WITH THE CONTINUAL DROP IN OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AT THE COMEX.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY:

48,989 CONTRACTS (FOR 20 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 48,989 CONTRACTS OR 244.945 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2637 CONTRACTS OR 13.185 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  244.945 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 34.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  493.475 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 244.945 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD ZERO LOSS  IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX DESPITE THE 17 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE.  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2649 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2649 EFP’S  FOR  MONTHS MARCH AND MAY WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   WE GAINED  3993 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2649 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 1344  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 17 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.43 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.9667 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 3507 NOTICE(S) FOR 17,535 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest  ROSE BY A SMALL 211 CONTRACTS RISING TO 532,860 DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($13.80).HOWEVER, IN ANOTHER DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT TOTALED AN HUGE SIZED  13,581 CONTRACTS OF WHICH  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 13,581 CONTRACTS AND  JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND THEN ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 532,649. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GAIN OF 13,792  CONTRACTS: 211 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND A HUGE SIZED  13,581 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.(16,117 oi gain in CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 42.89TONNES)

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7855 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 208,806 CONTRACTS OR 20,880,600  OZ OR 649.45 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,440EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,044,000 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 649.45 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 649.45/2200 x 100% TONNES =  29.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN FEBRUARY ALONE.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  1283.01 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY: 649.45 TONNES

Result: A  STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE HUGE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($13.80).  HOWEVER, WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 13,581 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 13,581 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 13,792 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

13,581 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  211 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 42.89 TONNES).

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD DOWN $0.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD OF GOLD INTO THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 831.03 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY 1344  contracts from 191,999 UP TO 193,343 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE FALL  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (17 CENT WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 324 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH AND 2325 EFP CONTRACTS OR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF  1344 CONTRACTS TO THE 2649 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 3993  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS .  WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN MARCH (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  19.96 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  FALL OF 17 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING ). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD 2649 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 32.66 POINTS OR 0.99% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 423.94 POINTS OR 1.36% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 423.94 POINTS OR 1.36%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.68%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3225/Oil DOWN to 62.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED  .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.225 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3248 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR AND ALL OTHER CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY (WEAK CURRENCY AND POOR MARKETS) 

Read More @ HarveyOrganBlog.com

12 Years In A Row And Counting: The U.S. Has Not Had A Year Of 3 Percent Economic Growth In More Than A Decade

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by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

If the U.S. economy is in good shape, then why has economic growth been so anemic for more than a decade?  It has been 12 long years since the economy grew by at least 3 percent, and for most of that time my website has been one of the leading voices chronicling America’s long-term economic problems.  In 2017, U.S. GDP increased by just 2.3 percent, but at least that was better than the pathetic 1.5 percent figure that was posted for 2016.  With Donald Trump in the White House, we have taken some steps in the right direction, but we must never forget that our long-term economic and financial problems continue to steadily get worse.

As I travel around Idaho’s first congressional district, I often tell voters that we have not had a year of 3 percent economic growth since the middle of the Bush administration, and a lot of people have a really hard time believing that this is accurate.  But of course it is 100 percent true, and earlier today CNS News published an article highlighting this fact…

The United States has gone a record 12 straight years without 3-percent growth in real Gross Domestic Product, according to data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This drought is highly, highly unusual.  In fact, before this 12 year stretch the previous record was just four years

Before the current period, when the nation has seen twelve straight years without 3 percent growth in real GDP, the longest stretch of years in which real GDP did not grow by at least 3 percent was during the Great Depression—when there were four straight years (1930-1933) when real GDP did not grow that much.

Have we entered a new era of low economic growth?

Is 3 percent the best that we can hope for from now on?

I have pointed out many times that Barack Obama was the only president in all of U.S. history never to have a single year of 3 percent economic growth, and he had two terms to try to achieve that.

Of course the U.S. economy began struggling far before Obama entered the White House.  As the U.S. has increasingly embraced socialism, our once vibrant economy has really had a tough time.  In fact, since the end of the Reagan administration our economic growth numbers have not been good at all

The last time it grew by more than 7 percent was 1984, when Ronald Reagan was president. That year, it grew by 7.3 percent.

In the years after 1984, the highest level of economic growth achieved by the United States was in 1999, when real GDP grew by 4.7 percent.

Hopefully things can turn around under President Trump, and that it is why it is so imperative that we send pro-Trump candidates for Congress to Washington.

The U.S. economy is way overdue for a recession, and many believe that the next major economic downturn is right around the corner.  We just witnessed the worst February for stocks in 9 years, and the Dow ended the month on a huge down note.  Hopefully things will rebound in March, but there is absolutely no guarantee that will happen.

The following are some more facts about what transpired in February from Zero Hedge

  • Trannies worst month since Jan 2016
  • Small Caps worst month since Oct 2016
  • VIX biggest monthly jump since Aug 2015
  • 30Y TSY Yield biggest monthly jump since Nov 2016
  • 2Y TSY Yield up 6 straight months
  • HY Credit (HYG) worst month since Jan 2016
  • HY Spreads worst month since Sept 2015
  • USD Index up most since Feb 2017
  • WTI worst month since Aug 2017
  • Gold worst month since Sept 2017
  • Silver worst month since Nov 2016

I know that I didn’t write very much this month, and that is because I have been relentlessly working to win my race for Congress.

Read More @ TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

Stockman: $1.8 Trillion in New Treasury Debt Will Hit Bond Pits “Like a Tornado”

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by Pam Martens and Russ Martens, Wall st On Parade:

Investors have been whiplashed so far this week and it’s only Wednesday morning. On Monday, the Dow rocketed ahead by 399 points. On Tuesday, it plunged by 299 points. What changed investor sentiment so dramatically in 24 hours?

David Stockman, the former Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan who blogs at Contra Corner, appeared on CNBC yesterday to size up the situation. Commenting on the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, who gave testimony for the first time in his new role before the House Financial Services Committee yesterday, Stockman said he thinks Powell is “missing three giant skunks sitting on the wood pile.”

The biggest skunk according to Stockman is an “epic monetary fiscal collision” that Stockman says he hasn’t seen before in his lifetime. Stockman explained that starting this October, which begins the Federal government’s Fiscal 2019,  the government is going to borrow $1.2 trillion. Stockman called this “an astronomical number” given that the U.S. is ten years into an expansion. (Borrowing of that magnitude has traditionally been done only during a deep recession.)

At the same time says Stockman, the Federal Reserve has pivoted to Quantitative Tightening (QT) “and they will be dumping $600 billion” of their bonds into the market at the same time as the government is pumping up debt issuance. (The Federal Reserve began trimming back its purchases of Treasury bonds in October of last year in order to normalize its bloated balance sheet that resulted from the financial crisis. That trimming, which is an effective tightening of monetary policy, will expand this year.

The Fed’s $600 billion combined with the $1.2 trillion from the government means that $1.8 trillion in Treasuries “will be looking for a home” in Fiscal 2019 said Stockman. This leads Stockman to believe that the market simply can’t clear all of this debt at anywhere near the 2.90 percent interest rate at which the 10-year U.S. Treasury has been trading. He says there is going to be a “monumental yield shock” that will take 10-year Treasury yields to 3 to 4 percent “and probably overshoot beyond that.”

Another big skunk explains Stockman is that there will not be the help coming from other central banks around the world as there has been in the past decade. They’re also in wind-down mode.

In his House testimony yesterday, Powell rattled markets by using the words “robust” to describe the job market and “more stimulative” to describe fiscal policy. He also said that “wages should increase at a faster pace.” The full context was as follows in his written testimony:

“The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment. Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative. In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.

“Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.”

Read More @ WallStOnParade.com