Sunday, August 9, 2020

David Morgan – Silver Will Shine Again

by Kerry Lutz, Financial Survival Network:

David Morgan is one of the most knowledgeable precious metals authority on the planet. He’s been doing it for 40 years. We had a wide ranging discussion covering the folly of the Fed, why precious metals are the ultimate hedge and how you can make up for a lot of bad investment decisions with just one right one. A look at the world economic situation shows at some point precious metals could very well be the answer to global chaos. Precious metals will once again become very important and relevant.

Click HERE to Listen

World’s largest pension fund loses $136 billion

by Simon Black, Sovereign Man:

Things keep getting worse for pensions…

If you’ve read Notes recently, you know the pension fund crisis is one of our major themes. Simply put, these giant pools of capital responsible for paying out retirement benefits to workers are BROKE.

According to the World Economic Forum, pension funds around the world are short around $70 TRILLION. State, federal and local pensions in the US are $7 trillion short… and a recent report by Boston College estimates 25% of private US pensions will go broke in the next decade.

This is all happening because investment returns have been too low.

Telltale Signs of Recession

by Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds:

I’m seeing lifestyles that are out of stock and no longer available, even in China.

Though every recession is unique, all recessions manifest in similar ways in the real economy. By real economy, I mean the on-the-ground economy we observe with our own eyes, as opposed to the abstract statistical model reflected in official declarations of when recessions begin and end.

One characteristic that never makes it into the abstract statistical representation of recession is the light switch phenomenon: business suddenly dries up, as if someone turned a light switch off. This is especially visible in discretionary purchases, which include everything from smart phones to vehicles to eating out.

Expect the Buyback Wave to Continue This Year – Nomi Prins

by Nomi Prins, Daily Reckoning:

A crucial theme from last year is continuing into this year — stock buybacks. Last year was a banner year for companies buying back their own shares. A month into 2019, it appears that Wall Street is set to continue that trend.

Last year, U.S. companies announced a whopping $1.1 trillion worth of buyback plans. Armed with extra cash from favorable corporate tax policy enacted in 2017, they enthusiastically bought back their own shares.

But as of mid-December, only about $800 billion of those buybacks had actually occurred. That means there could be another $300 billion of the total 2018 target still waiting to hit the market.

Why Monetary Easing Will Fail

by Alasdair Macleod, GoldMoney:

The major economies have slowed suddenly in the last two or three months, prompting a change of tack in the monetary policies of central banks. The same old tired, failing inflationist responses are being lined up, despite the evidence that monetary easing has never stopped a credit crisis developing. This article demonstrates why monetary policy is doomed by citing three reasons. There is the empirical evidence of money and credit continuing to grow regardless of interest rate changes, the evidence of Gibson’s paradox, and widespread ignorance in macroeconomic circles of the role of time preference.

Why Housing Won’t Bounce With Lower Rates

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:

“Our advice is to own as little exposure U.S. equity exposure as your career risk allows.” – Martin Tarlie, member of portfolio allocation at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo investment management

The following is an excerpt from the latest Short Seller’s Journal:

Economy is worse than policy makers admit publicly – Less than four months ago, the FOMC issued a policy statement that anticipated four rate hikes in 2019 with no mention of altering the balance sheet reduction program that was laid out at the beginning of the QT initiative. It seems incredible then that, after this past week’s FOMC meeting, that the Fed held interest rates unchanged, removed any expectation for any rate hikes in 2019, and stated that it might reduce its QT program if needed. After reducing its balance sheet less than 10%, the Fed left open the possibility of reversing course and increasing the size of the balance sheet – i.e. re-implementing “QE” money printing.

Fed’s QE Unwind Reaches $434 Billion, Remains on “Autopilot”

by Wolf Richter, Wolf Street:

Getting rid of MBS faster and shifting to short-term Treasury bills will be on the list.

The Fed shed $32 billion in assets in January, according to the Fed’s balance sheet for the week ended February 6, released this afternoon. This reduced the assets on its balance sheet to $4,026 billion, the lowest since January 2014. Since the beginning of this “balance sheet normalization,” the Fed has now shed $434 billion.

GOLD RISES 35 CENTS TO $1310.75/SILVER DOWN ONLY ONE CENT TO $15.71 AS BOTH METALS HOLD DESPITE CHINA BEING OFF FOR THEIR LUNAR NEW YEAR

by Harvey Organ, Harvey Organ Blog:

BANK OF ENGLAND LOWERS FORECAST FOR GROWTH FOR GREAT BRITAIN/ALSO ECB LOWERS GROWTH FOR THE EU/GERMAN 10 YR BONDS CLOSE AT .12//USA ANNOUNCES THAT CHINA AND THE USA ARE VERY FAR APART AND XI AND TRUMP MAY NOT MEET PRIOR TO THE MARCH 1 DEADLINE/DOW DROPS 220 POINTS

GOLD: $1310.75 UP $0.35 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.71 DOWN 1 CENT (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

“THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR HAS NO GUARANTEE WHATSOEVER”

by Egon Von Greyerz, Gold Switzerland:

The statement above is of course totally accurate for a country running budget and trade deficits for over half a century with a total debt, including unfunded liabilities, in the hundreds of trillions of dollars.

It could have been said today, but it actually dates back to August 1971 when the People’s Daily in China declared the beginning of the end for the monetary system of the capitalist world.