Friday, December 14, 2018

What’s next for the dollar, stocks, bonds and gold?

by Axel Merk, GoldSeek:

The Fed’s “balance sheet reduction” may have profound implications for the dollar, gold, stocks and bonds. We’ll provide an outlook.

It is said forecasts are difficult, especially when they relate to the future. Investors might want to pay attention nonetheless, not so much because I believe I have a crystal ball, but because investing is about managing risk. And there’s a risk that I’m right.

Quantitative Tightening
There’s a lot to cover, so let’s start with what is perceived to be the elephant in the room, the Fed. In suggesting that the Fed would soon initiate balance sheet reduction, Fed Chair Janet Yellen indicated it would be like watching paint dry on a wall. Duly observant, numerous pundits agreed. With due respect, that’s a bunch of baloney, but judge for yourself. Unless markets fall apart in the coming weeks, we expect that the formal announcement for the Fed’s balance sheet reduction will be made this September, with a gradual stepping up in the amount the Fed will allow to “run off”, i.e. the amount of maturing bonds it won’t re-invest. The Fed has left many details open to interpretation, but looking at Treasuries alone, at first, $6 billion may be allowed to run off; this is gradually stepped up until $30 billion a month may be allowed to run off. It’s not clear at what duration maturing bonds will be reinvested that are above the threshold, but it is plausible to roll those excesses to “fill the gaps” in subsequent months. Differently said, it’s perfectly possible that the Fed will indeed allow $30 billion in Treasuries to run off once the program is fully deployed:

India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone

Cashless push, good for gold
by Mark O’Byrne, Gold Core:

– India gold imports in H1, 2017 greater than all of 2016
– India imported 521 tonnes of gold in first half of 2017
– H1 figure for gold imports $22.2 Bln versus $23 Bln in all ’16
– Gold demand was up 15{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} year- on-year in the first quarter
– June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago
– Annual total set to surpass 900 tons, strongest year since ’12
– “I trust gold more than the currencies of countries” – 63{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} of Indians in Survey

Timeline to Collapse: The End of Market Rigging, Money Fraud, Political & Moral Secrets | Rob Kirby

from Reluctant Preppers:

Rob Kirby, outspoken commentator, proprietary analyst and founder of KirbyAnalytics.com returns to Reluctant Preppers to spell out the timeline to collapse. Kirby explains how intervention in our capital markets has been rampant, our cash system is a crack-house, and why it needs to be busted. Kirby further argues that those who have denied it, perpetrated it, and prolonged it must be outed, and the natural law allowed to restore truthful and just money, to protect world peace. Kirby pulls no punches.

Illinois On The Brink? The Whole Country Is On The Brink

by Dave Kranzler, Investment Research Dynamics:
The biggest problem facing Illinois is the public pension fund problem. I don’t care what the “official” number is for the degree to which it is underfunded. I can guarantee that even without marking-to-real-market the illiquid investments like private equity funds, derivatives, commercial real estate trusts and other assets that do not have truly visible markets, collectively the public pension system in Illinois is at least 60-70{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} underfunded. Then apply a realistic assumed actuarial rate of return on assets, which would be lower than the current assumption (likely 7.5{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528} ad infinitum) and the underfunding goes to 80{5f621241b214ad2ec6cd4f506191303eb2f57539ef282de243c880c2b328a528}. The problem is unsolvable without a complete and drastic restructuring.

The Perfect Storage Options To Capitalize On Historically Undervalued Gold, Silver, And Platinum

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by Andy Hoffman, Miles Franklin:
This morning, I have several important topics to discuss – which, when today’s historically manipulated reality returns from the Bizarro World where PiMBEEB events result in higher stock, and lower Precious Metal, prices – will cumulatively, yield dramatic market “resets” unlike anything previously witnessed. Which in due time, must inevitably occur – given the gross, and patently unsustainable, financial, economic, and monetary distortions caused by the final stage of history’s largest, most destructive fiat Ponzi scheme.

To start with, a topic many of you are undoubtedly interested in hearing my take on, given that not only am I the only Precious Metal commentator to address it objectively; but given my considerable “experience” in this still nascent, but unquestionably world-changing technology, make me a “grizzled veteran” of the space; i.e., crypto-currency.

Stocks and Precious Metals Chart – Me and My Baby

from Jesse’s Café Américain:
“Learn what is to be taken seriously and laugh at the rest.”

Hermann Hesse

“Narcissism falls along the axis of what psychologists call personality disorders, one of a group that includes antisocial, dependent, histrionic, avoidant and borderline personalities.

But by most measures, narcissism is one of the worst, if only because the narcissists themselves are so clueless.”

China Based LME Ready to Take on London and Comex for Control Over Gold Land Silver Pricing

by Kenneth Schortgen, The Daily Economist:
On July 10 the London Metals Exchange, a Hong Kong based corporation, threw down the gauntlet and is entering into the futures contract arena for both gold and silver.

In a return to the futures market for the first time in three decades, the LME is preparing to take on the LBMA and its Gold and Silver price Fixing mechanisms, as well as the Comex out of New York, in waging a war over control over the pricing of precious metals.