THE U.S. PETRO DOLLAR BREAKDOWN CONTINUES: Big Moves In Gold & Silver Ahead

by Steve St. Angleo, SRSrocco:

The four-decade long monopoly of the U.S. Petro-Dollar as the world’s reserve currency is coming to an end.  Unfortunately, most Americans have no clue that when the Dollar loses its reserve currency status, life will get a lot tougher living in the U.S. of A.  Let’s say, Americans will finally receive “Precious metals religion.”

The U.S. Dollar Index fell considerably yesterday and is now down below a key support level.  In early morning trading yesterday, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 91.46, down 73 basis points:

US-Dollar-Chart2.png

According to technical analyst, Clive Maund, in his recent article, DOLLAR update as LOSS OF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS LOOMS..., he stated the following:

The dollar is on course to lose its reserve currency status. This is not something that will happen overnight, it will be a process, but at some point there is likely to be a “sea change” in perception, as the world grasps that this is what is happening, which will trigger a cascade of selling leading to its collapse, whereupon gold and silver will rocket higher.

In that article, Clive posted the following chart on the U.S. Dollar Index (USD index) and its key support level:

DOLLAR-CHART.png

As we can see, traders are looking closely to the Key support area at 92.5 for the USD index.  With the USD index now below that key support area, it could spell real trouble for the Dollar if it closes below that level at the end of the week.  After the markets opened today, the Dollar fell to a low of 91.08.  So, it looks like the Dollar will close this week well below the key support area.

Now, part of the reason for the selloff in the Dollar may have been due to the disaster that took place in the 10-year U.S. Treasury Repo market today.  According to Zerohedge’s article “We’ve Never Seen Anything Like This”: Repo Market Snaps As 10Y Suffers “Epic Fail”:

Commenting on this dramatic move in 10Y repo rates, Stone McCarthy’s Alan Chernoff, in a note titled “Epic Fail”, writes that “the 10-year note has been below the fails rate and shows no signs of moving! It opened at -350 basis points, and though pressure has eased off of it slightly, it is STILL below the fails rate at -300 basis points.”

Commenting on this dramatic move in 10Y repo rates, Stone McCarthy’s Alan Chernoff, in a note titled “Epic Fail”, writes that “the 10-year note has been below the fails rate and shows no signs of moving! It opened at -350 basis points, and though pressure has eased off of it slightly, it is STILL below the fails rate at -300 basis points.”

The pressure on the U.S. Treasury 10-year repo market is likely a reaction to what came out of the annual BRICS summit in China yesterday,  According to the article, Escobar Exposes Real BRICS Bombshell: Putin’s “Fair Multipolar World” Where Oil Trade Bypasses The Dollar:

“To overcome the excessive domination of the limited number of reserve currencies” is the politest way of stating what the BRICS have been discussing for years now; how to bypass the US dollar, as well as the petrodollar.

Beijing is ready to step up the game. Soon China will launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold.

This means that Russia – as well as Iran, the other key node of Eurasia integration – may bypass US sanctions by trading energy in their own currencies, or in yuan.

This announcement by Putin that oil trade should by-pass the Dollar came a few days after China announced that they plan to start trading oil on their Shanghai Exchange in Yuan, which will be backed by gold.  While we have heard for years that China was going to back their currency or trade with gold, we now see actual plans to start implementing it sometime this year.

By China backing its new oil trading benchmark in Yuan with gold, it provides countries with a great deal of confidence in trading oil in another fiat currency besides the U.S. Dollar.  Thus, countries that acquire a lot of Chinese Yuan by trading oil don’t have to worry about devaluation as they can convert Yuan into gold.

This Is Bad News For the Saudi-Petro Dollar System

The Petro-Dollar system that has been the foundation of world oil trade for the past four decades is now about to become obsolete.  Even though many countries will continue trading oil in Dollars in the future, a larger percentage will likely move into trading oil in Chinese Yuan as it provides a “gold-backed protection” against fiat currency devaluation.

Not only is the Petro-Dollar under severe pressure, so is Middle East’s largest oil exporter that was the foundation of this monetary system back in the early 1970’s.  Ever since the price of oil peaked in 2014 and has fallen by more than half to $49 currently, this has put an enormous strain on Saudi Arabia’s financial bottom line.  In the past three years, Saudi Arabia sold over $250 billion of its foreign exchange reserves, which are mostly in U.S. Treasuries, to fund its national government.

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