Climate Change – Volcanoes (Part II)

by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics:

Over the past few decades, there have been several research papers in the scientific press that submit there is a correlation between cosmic-solar radiations and destructive geological events such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. On top of this, there are correlations with climate change that kick in where volcanoes throw up ash into the atmosphere which blocks the sun and that sets in motion the global cooling sending the earth back toward an Ice Age. Therefore, the entire process is extremely complex. Our computer can put out a forecast, but it is looking at everything and the dynamic complexity of all the interactions. This is why I do not put forth X happens because of Y. It is just more complex than such correlations.

Nonetheless, the strongest correlation between volcanoes and earthquakes remains that with the sun. In the last two and half centuries the following major volcanic eruptions occurred during strong solar minimum when the energy is at its greatest: Grimvotn (Iceland) 1783/84 (14 km3), Tambora (Indonesia) 1810 (150 km3), Krakatoa 1883 (5.0 km3), Santa Maria (Guatemala) 1902 (4.8 km3), Novarupta (Alaska) 1912 (3.4 km3). The only major eruption to occur during a solar maximum was Pinatabo (Philippines) 1991 (between 6 and 16 km3).

Additionally, research has concluded that there is an extremely high correlation between global volcanic activity among the largest of classes of eruptions and solar activity lows. Over 80% of these volcanic eruptions greater than VEI 5 and almost 88% of the extreme largest eruptions measuring VEI 6 or greater also taking place with solar minimums. There appears to be a strong correlation of volcanic eruptions coinciding with solar minimum. Pictured above, the Bali, Indonesian Agung volcano has been putting out smoke for several weeks. If this eruption unfolds as a VEI 6+ or VEI 7 as was Tambora back in 1815, this will accelerate the Global Cooling. That is going to be devastating for society and the global economy.

There is a clear relationship between solar magnetic activity and 11 of the most explosive eruptions from silicate-rich volcanoes in Japan over the past 309.6 years. It turns out that nine of these eruptions, in fact, took place during solar minimum, which is the inactive phase of solar activity/sunspots. We may find that volcanoes are also triggered by the by the rise in cosmic radiation.

What I can confirm is that volcanic eruptions play a tremendous part in creating Global Cooling, which is our real threat going into the next decade. Volcanic activity is rising again from Mount Tambora to Yellowstone. Evidence suggests that 1816, known as the year without a summer, was caused predominantly by a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora, which was the largest eruption in at least 1,300 years. However, the Year Without a Summer was exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines. Once again, it appears that there is a correlation of not just one volcanic eruption, but a series. Wheat prices had peaked in 1812 due to war, but they declined in 1815 falling to $19.90. They then rallied sharply into 1817 reaching about $30 posting a 50% advance.

1817-Wheat-Y.jpg

In Britain, the farmers tried to prevent the price of wheat from declining. They essentially paid off the politicians to introduce the Corn Laws which were tariffs and restrictions on imported food and grain (“corn”). The Corn Laws were enforced in Great Britain between 1815 and 1846. They were designed to keep grain prices high to favor domestic producers against the American farmers in the aftermath of the War of 1812. The Corn Laws imposed steep import duties and thereby made it too expensive to import grain from America, which set in motion famine conditions when food supplies were short. This attempt by the British government to protect their farmers from competition became a leading cause of the Great Irish Potatoe Famine.

Beginning from 1845 to 1851, the Irish potato famine killed over a million men, women, and children. This is what caused over a million more to flee the country sailing to America where food was plenty. Ireland in the mid-1800s was an agricultural nation, populated by eight million people who were among the poorest people in the Western World. The cause of famine was potato blight, which devastated the crops throughout Europe during the 1840s. However, the impact in Ireland was overwhelming since about one-third of the population was dependent on the potato. The Corn Laws contributed to the disaster by blocking the importation of food. They were abandoned because of the Irish situation in 1846.

Read More @ ArmstrongEconomics.com