by Michael Snyder, The Economic Collapse Blog:

Since war with Iran erupted in February, the world has been using a lot more oil than it has been producing. The good news is that we had a tremendous amount of extra oil sitting around. As a result, we have been able to avoid shortages and we have been able to serve as the supplier of last resort for nations all over the globe. The bad news is that our commercial oil inventories are now almost entirely depleted, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drained very rapidly. We will soon hit a wall, and when that happens the global energy crisis will start getting really crazy.
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According to the International Energy Agency, the amount of oil being produced globally each day is falling faster than they originally projected…
Global oil supply will fall by ~4% and oil demand is set for a deeper contraction this year, as renewed hostilities in the Middle East push up fuel prices and weigh on consumption, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Wednesday.
The Paris-based agency sees global oil supply falling by 4.3M bbl/day this year, compared with the 3.7M bbl/day forecast in the IEA’s July report, which would take total supply to the IEA’s lowest forecast yet for this year at 102M bbl/day.
At this stage, global demand for oil is well above global supply.
In fact, the International Energy Agency is now expecting the world to run an oil deficit of approximately 1.8 million barrels a day during the third quarter of this year. That is “more than double its previous estimate”…
The result would put global oil supply ~1.27M bbl/day below demand this year, widening from an 860K bbl/day deficit implied from the IEA’s July forecasts.
“Global oil supply has fallen well below demand due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, the U.S. blockade of Iranian exports, attacks within the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports,” the IEA said.
For Q3, the IEA expects the global oil market to run a deficit of 1.8M bbl/day, more than double its previous estimate of ~800K bbl/day and the deepest quarterly deficit since Q4 2021.
I realize that there is a lot of technical jargon there, and so let me try to break this down very simply.
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