by Alastair Crooke, Strategic Culture:
President Trump took Secretary of War Hegseth’s military cheerleading (‘U.S. military potency is awesome’) at face value, only belatedly to discover that the U.S. is out of interceptors in a war that hinges on air defences. ‘The restock mathematics is just as cold. Four years to refill the stocks (not four months), because components include rare earth materials that are controlled by China’.
Hegseth, it seems, is now in the dog-house, whilst Treasury Secretary Bessent’s star is ascendent.
Reportedly, Bessent has continuously reassured Trump that the oil shortage triggered by the closure of the Hormuz Strait “is temporary and manageable” (it isn’t), arguing too that energy-driven inflation also will ease once global tensions cool. He has bet his hat on it. And Trump seems to believe in the manipulation of oil and market futures.
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However the figures floated around in Washington for vessels slipped through via the Oman corridor are fictitious. Brett Erickson, of Obsidian Risk Advisors, writes:
“After speaking to several of my professional colleagues that I trust absolutely, there is zero evidence whatsoever to support that 8M barrels per day are transiting via the Omani Route, and zero evidence that 9Mbpd is exiting the Strait of Hormuz per day. Zero. Not “maybe”, not “potentially”. No evidence. And even more damning, [there is] evidence directly to the contrary”.
To the question, “Is their plan to just lie low until everything falls apart? What then?”, Erickson replies:
“From what I understand, they actually think some of this information is correct. They’re stupid, not disingenuous necessarily … which is worse”.
Trump’s pivot to economic pressure as the key to Iranian capitulation is not a credible strategy. Even if a tighter siege did succeed in worsening further the plight of the Iranian people, it is implausible that their suffering would bring about some beneficial endgame – such as a Delcy Rodrigues style régime change?
Iran is in an existential war with the U.S. and Israel, and were the Iranian leadership ever to be pushed to having to choose between capitulation and escalating the confrontation, they would almost certainly opt for escalation. In fact, the decision to escalate militarily – to put the pressure on Trump – seems already to have been taken, as evidenced by recent statements by Mosen Rezaei, the newly-appointed Secretary of the Supreme National Security Committee. Iran will continue with pro-active military action, even if Trump opts to forego military action.
Iran, however, is showing no signs of economic collapse under the renewed U.S. blockade. Iran had an estimated 120–140 million barrels of oil positioned offshore in tankers at the outset of the conflict and has exported another 80 million barrels during the limited term of the MoU. The Rial has, in fact, strengthened during the MoU, so the question is: What happens if Iran not only refuses to capitulate, but instead toughens its posture towards Trump – as it appears to be doing?
Danny Citrinowicz, a leading Israeli military analyst, notes that maintaining the current standoff is hardly cost-free for the U.S.. Hormuz remains severely restricted; the Red Sea is blocked to Saudi exports; and U.S. forces are compelled to sustain an expensive military presence and blockade. Additionally, American munition inventories face pressure, and Tehran still retains numerous ways to harass U.S. forces and threaten regional shipping. Meanwhile, the economic consequences of disrupted energy flows certainly do not fall on Iran alone. As the Wall Street Journal noted this week:
“Persian Gulf energy producers are concluding that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz will become permanent, disrupting their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies indefinitely … [effectively they have] no good option for countering [a more assertive Iran]”.
And oil is not the only component disrupted by the conflict. A series of vital supply-line components are disrupted too.
Should it ultimately transpire that the U.S. went to war without doing due diligence on its armoury status (wrongly assuming that the war would be concluded in a weekend, as David Barnea, head of Mossad insisted at the 11 July 2026 Situation Room briefing insisted to Trump), and should it transpire that the Treasury Secretary has been confabulating about the true energy situation, then some people ultimately will have serious questions to answer.
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