by Martin Armstrong, Armstrong Economics:
The Ukrainian currency has been a perpetual short since 1998, and nothing has changed since. The central bank tried to fix the currency in 2022 when the war began. Our models could easily forecast precisely when the war would begin, for there was a massive outflow of currency in advance. Yet, I posted that the war cycle turned up in 2014, which marked the beginning at the 2011 World Economic Conference, and later I posted that the model had targeted Ukraine in 2013.
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Zelensky actually confessed to the Washington Post that he knew when Russia would invade but refused to warn the people, claiming it would have cost him $7 billion because capital would have fled. Our models clearly picked up massive capital outflows ahead of the start of the war confirming that advance knowledge existed. It appears that was the money of Zelensky and friends moving money out based on inside information while he refused to tell the people on advance. That would have been a crime in the United States.
There is evidence of a significant financial and economic exodus from Ukraine in the lead-up to February 24th, 2022. While comprehensive data on capital flight is not available insofar as identifying the specific individuals without searching accounts in offshore havens. Zelensky purchased a $5 million property in Egypt under his mother-in-law’s name, Olga Kiyashko. His aids apparently stole $75 million from US funds.
The weeks before the invasion saw several distinct forms of capital and asset flight. For example, on February 13th, 2022, a reported 20 private jets and charter planes departed from Ukraine, carrying some of the country’s wealthiest businesspeople and oligarchs. This was a clear, visible sign of the wealthy moving their assets and themselves out of the country on insider information.
The flight of capital was also evident in the global financial markets. The prospect of war led to a “flight to safety,” where investors moved money out of riskier assets into safer havens like the U.S. dollar. Specifically, Ukraine experienced investor flight, its currency (the hryvnia) came under severe pressure, and its central bank’s reserves were being rapidly depleted as it tried to stabilize the currency.
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