New York’s Millionaire Exodus Is Costing Billions In Lost Revenue

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from ZeroHedge:

Mayor Zohran Mamdani stood outside Ken Griffin’s $238 million Manhattan penthouse in April and declared victory. “When I ran for mayor, I said I was going to tax the rich. Well, today we’re taxing the rich,” he said in a social media video marking the debut of New York City’s first pied-à-terre tax, an annual fee on luxury properties worth more than $5 million whose owners do not live in the city full time. He promised the tax would raise “at least $500 million directly for the city,” money he said would fund free child care, cleaner streets, and safer neighborhoods. “This is a fundamentally unfair system that hurts working New Yorkers,” Mamdani said. “Now it’s coming to an end.”

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Three months later, a new study suggests the mayor picked an odd moment to celebrate.

The Citizen Budget Commission published an analysis Monday, finding that New York’s shrinking share of the nation’s millionaires cost the state an estimated $10.7 billion in lost personal income tax revenue in 2022 alone. New York’s share of the country’s millionaires fell from 12.7 percent in 2010 to 8.7 percent in 2022, the steepest decline of any state over that period. Had New York simply held its 2010 share, the Commission concluded, the state would have collected roughly $10.7 billion more in personal income tax that year.

So Mamdani, who took office in January, had inherited a tax base already showing signs of flight. His pied-à-terre push targets exactly the kind of high earners the CBC says have been leaving in growing numbers, and critics view the timing as more provocation than plan. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is running for reelection in November, has stopped short of backing an outright tax increase on wealthy New Yorkers this year, though she supports the pied-à-terre concept for luxury second homes in the city.

“In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year, so New York’s revenue is very reliant on high earners to stay in New York, and that has been a challenge in recent years,” said Jared Walczak, an economist and senior fellow at the Tax Foundation think tank, told the New York Post.

Walczak said city-level measures like Mamdani’s cannot fix the underlying problem, since any meaningful tax change requires action in Albany. He also warned that continued hikes combined with more competitive alternatives elsewhere could accelerate departures.

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