by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
Today’s action is different. And different is good.
Since March, gold has struggled with rising oil prices, rising bond yields or rising rate hike expectatons.
But here we are with the 30-year long bond on the verge of a major breakout, and rate hike expectations rising, yet the price of gold and silver are up anyway.
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30-year Long Bond vs Gold
CME October 2026 Rate Hike Expectations
Unfortunately, I do not have a chart of rate hike expections over time.
However, since March, rate hike expectations have been rising. And generally that’s not good for gold unless the market perceives the Fed is increasingly behind the curve.
The sobering fact is the market thinks there is an 84 percent chance of at least one hike by the election.
There’s a 38.9 percent chance of multiple hikes.
Rising rate hike expectations are what’s really been troubling gold. Since July, gold hasn’t done much, but it has ignored those expectations.
