by Martin Jay, Strategic Culture:
But it might not even hold, as there are too many possibilities which could scupper it in the 60 days where the U.S. is forced to negotiate with Tehran over its nuclear capabilities.
President Donald Trump has possibly signed off on the worst deal for him and the U.S. in the short history of his country with Iran, underlining how desperate he was to open the Straits of Hormuz and begin to reinstate world shipping, in the hope of lowering oil prices. According to reports on Sunday evening of June 14th, it would seem that he and Iran have agreed provisionally to a deal which many are already calling a “60-day memorandum,” given its window of opportunity to seize the greater prize of getting Tehran to agree to scrapping its nuclear program.
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But even if both sides agree and sign, the moment of relief may be ephemeral, as there are many obstacles ahead which can derail it at any time. The question of who is really running America’s foreign policy — certainly in the Middle East — might be answered in the coming months, as Trump’s relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu will be pivotal to any progress, with legions of analysts already pointing out that Bibi will break the ceasefire shortly after it has been signed. Even more likely would be a false flag attack designed to fool Trump that the Iranians are the ones who reneged on the deal and that he is duty-bound to join Israel in returning to war.
For the deal to hold, Israel has to stop fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is a very tall order given that this battle is the only pretext Bibi has to both stay in office and avoid corruption charges that could possibly put him in prison.
Yet the real problem with the deal is the lack of trust the Iranians have with Trump — and rightly so. They don’t believe the deal can last, even if a second stage of it can be signed and they give up their rights to refine uranium. They have always believed that everything Trump does and says is a ruse, and that any peace deal signed off within the 60 days would only hold until the primaries, before Trump is seduced once again into going back to war. In the shorter term, though, it would appear that Iran has secured an extraordinary deal which could, if honoured, see them getting $300 billion USD in compensation for reconstruction and $24 billion USD being returned to them from seized money which the U.S. held. It’s hard to imagine how Trump is going to spin this to the American public as a victory, as all the U.S. gets is lower fuel prices and the possibility of paying even more money to Iran to give up its nuclear program. Clearly, with the lack of trust which Iran has, it will ensure that the $324 billion USD is paid first before they really take the second part of the deal seriously. But with the Straits of Hormuz open, it will still be a relief to Trump that the global oil trade can begin to get back to normal, although experts have said this could take months. Convincing the international insurance brokers in London that all three parties — the U.S., Israel, and Iran — are going to keep the straits open will be hard, and it is expected that Trump’s key associates will be using all of their might to lean on the London-based industry.
But the deal is terrible for America over the longer term, as it backs up Professor Bob Pope’s analogy that Trump has made Iran the fourth world power. With the straits open and part of U.S. oil sanctions lifted, this is already axiomatic and clear to see.
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