by Frank Bergman, Slay News:
Scientists are warning that humanity may be far more vulnerable to catastrophic population decline than previously believed, with a new study suggesting the global population could be cut in half within just four decades if a major worldwide crisis dramatically reduces Earth’s ability to sustain human life.
The alarming findings come from researchers at the University of Milan, who analyzed 12,000 years of human population data to model how civilization would respond to extreme environmental, social, or economic shocks.
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Their research, published in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, paints a stark picture of how quickly population numbers could unravel if the planet’s carrying capacity suddenly collapses.
Global Population Could Plunge by Billions
According to the study, Earth’s current population of approximately 8.3 billion people is heavily dependent on stable access to food, water, energy, and functioning social systems.
Researchers modeled a hypothetical scenario in which a major global catastrophe dramatically reduced the planet’s carrying capacity, the maximum number of people Earth can sustainably support.
If that carrying capacity were suddenly reduced to just 2 billion people due to events such as widespread resource shortages, major wars, the rise of AI, the continuing fertility crisis, or global disasters, the model projected that the human population could fall by roughly 50% by 2064.
Under such a scenario, instead of growing toward the expected 8 to 10 billion people, the world’s population would decline to approximately 4 to 5 billion.
The researchers asserted that the findings are not an “announcement of an apocalypse.”
Professor Alessio Zaccone of the University of Milan, one of the study’s authors, stressed that the model illustrates how dependent modern civilization has become on environmental and societal stability.
“It is a mathematical model showing how strongly we depend on environmental stability,” Zaccone said.
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