by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:
It has been eight years since there has been an FOMC meeting led by someone other than Jerome Powell. A new era begins on Wednesday with the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. Will things change or will they stay the same? That question makes it a rather interesting week.
What a long, strange trip it has been since The Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Two decades ago we dealt with Ben Bernanke, who was succeeded by Janet Yellen. Yellen moved on and her place was taken by Jerome Powell. Now Kevin Warsh, who was a Fed Governor in 2008, replaces Powell. The circle of life, in a sense.
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
Interest Rate Expectations And Market Outlook
Warsh inherits a Fed that was easing off its rate cut expectations at Powell’s last big meeting in March. The year began with the FOMC projecting two rate cuts in 2026, but with the Iran War beginning on March 1, the expectation was trimmed to just one cut when the FOMC published their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at the conclusion of the March FOMC.
Quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
As I type this on Monday, June 15, the market projections are now for zero cuts this year. In fact, fed funds futures are pricing in a 50/50 chance of a rate hike before year end. That’s quite a shift from where things stood in late 2025 and a primary reason gold and silver prices have fallen so sharply from their early 2026 highs.
Target Rate Probabilities for 9 December 2026 Fed Meeting
Track current precious metals trends through the spot price charts, including the gold spot price chart and silver spot price chart.
Kevin Warsh And The Future Of Monetary Policy
So what can we expect from Warsh on Wednesday? The statement that appears at 2:00 pm ET is likely to be benign, but the updated quarterly SEP might be interesting. Either way, the real action will come in his first press conference, which is slated to begin at 2:30 ET. What will Warsh say and how will he say it?
Since Warsh’s name was first put forth earlier this year, the assumption has been that he will be some sort of “hawk”—at least more “hawkish” than Powell and his predecessors. So does that mean higher interest rates are incoming? I don’t think so.
