The Lose-Lose Two-Way Risk of Trump Pulling the US Out of NATO

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by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:

Trump and Secretary Rubio accuse Europe of freeloading. Whatโ€™s the real story?

The 77-year-old NATO alliance faces the biggest crisis in history. President Trump and Marco Rubio repeatedly express frustration over Europeโ€™s refusal to commit naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

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Why Are We In NATO? Asks Rubio

โ€œWhen we need them to allow our military bases, their answer is no. Then why are we in NATO? You have to ask that question. After this conflict is concluded, we are going to have to re-examine that relationship,โ€ said Rubio.

My what a pathetic bootlicker Marco Rubio has become.

Free Ride Rebuttal

100,000 American troops in Europe = a free ride for Europeans?

  1. American military bases are not free Germany, Italy, Spain, and Romania pay for the infrastructure, land, utilities, and civilian personnel of US bases. Germany alone contributes over $1 billion annually to support the American military presence on its soil.
  2. Europe is the largest customer of the American defense industry F-35s, Patriot missiles, HIMARS, Apache Helicopters โ€” all purchased by Europeans with real money. Every security alarm in Europe translates into contracts for Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing.
  3. American bases in Europe donโ€™t only protect Europe Ramstein in Germany coordinates operations across Africa and the Middle East. Sigonella in Italy covers the Mediterranean and North Africa. Romania secures the eastern flank and the Black Sea. These are global American strategic assets โ€” not neighborhood security for Europeans.
  4. Command is American, not European NATO is always led by an American Supreme Commander (SACEUR). Europe contributes troops, bases, and money โ€” but America holds the controls. Those who control the structure are not the ones getting a free ride.
  5. The nuclear umbrella is not altruism American nuclear deterrence in Europe keeps the dollar as the worldโ€™s reserve currency, keeps European markets open to US corporations, and legitimizes American hegemony against Russia and China. But what would actually happen if America withdrew its troops from Europe?
  6. For America โ€” immediate strategic losses Without bases in Europe, American response time to any crisis in Europe, Africa, or the Middle East grows from hours to days. Ramstein, Sigonella, and Incirlik cannot be replaced by aircraft carriers. Infrastructure built over decades disappears overnight.
  7. The American defense industry loses its biggest customer A Europe without the US umbrella will build its own defense industry โ€” and fast. Airbus Military, KNDS, Leonardo, and Rheinmetall will take the contracts that Lockheed and Raytheon currently win. Billions of dollars shift from America to Europe.
  8. The dollar weakens Dollar hegemony is partly sustained by American global military credibility. A withdrawal from Europe signals to the world that America no longer guarantees the postwar order. Alternatives โ€” the euro, the yuan โ€” become more attractive as global reserve options.
  9. Russia wins without firing a single shot Not necessarily through immediate invasion โ€” but through political influence, energy pressure, and the gradual destabilization of countries on the eastern frontier. The Baltic states, Poland, and Romania enter a security grey zone that no one can guarantee quickly.
  10. China watches and draws conclusions about Taiwan A precedent of withdrawal from Europe sends a direct signal to Beijing: American commitments are negotiable. The cost of deterrence in the Pacific rises exponentially. Withdrawal is not isolationism. It is strategic abdication. America would not be leaving Europe because it no longer has interests there. It would be leaving while ignoring that those very interests are what make it a superpower.

The โ€œfree rideโ€ narrative doesnโ€™t describe Europe. It describes exactly what America has in Europe.

Not a Big Fan of NATO

I am not a big fan of NATO as it exists.

For this post, I am merely looking at the claims and counter-claims.

Points 1, 2, 6, and 7 above are reasons why Trump will be the paper tiger he accuses NATO of being.

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