by Chris Marcus, Gold Seek:
Although in another article, they mention that neither country has actually backed the ceasefire, of which that part seems a lot easier to believe.
‘The United States and Iran on Monday were weighing the framework of a plan to end their five-week-old conflict, even as Tehran pushed back against pressure to swiftly reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the eve of a new ultimatum set by President Donald Trump.
Trump has threatened to rain “hell” on Tehran if it did not make a deal by the end of Tuesday that would allow traffic to start moving again through the vital route for global energy supplies.’
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As I continue to research this situation, I find that the Iranian response to Trump’s threats is not one of backing down. So thoughts on which country is right or not aside, I’m not sure that I feel good about the latest headlines indicating we’re on track towards a deal before the U.S. conceivably destroys parts of a country, kills and disrupts life for a large number of people, and Iran responds by taking action that will create great economic hurdles for the rest of the world, and exacerbate some already disconcerting energy and supply shortages, that could lead to food and water crises.
Further complicating things is that in several of the previous negotiation attempts, the Iranian negotiators have been killed. Which, aside from whether you think they are right or not, I do believe has left Iran feeling very untrusting of the Western leaders at this point.
So far the benchmark oil prices have remained in check.
Although reports of looming shortages continue to emerge.
We’ve also seen the West Texas/Brent crude spread invert, which speaks to the breakage of the system that’s beginning to occur now.
WTI crude spiked to $111.29 per barrel on Thursday, with Brent trading at $107.57, inverting the global benchmark structure as the market repriced accessible supply amid a prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI rarely trades at a premium to Brent. Brent crude reflects seaborne crude and typically leads during global supply shocks, while WTI crude is usually discounted. The current inversion points to a breakdown in normal pricing signals tied to physical flows.
Part of the move is technical: WTI’s front-month contract reflects May delivery, while Brent has already rolled to June, skewing the headline spread. But the deeper driver is extreme prompt pressure—WTI backwardation has surged to record levels—signaling immediate demand for secure, deliverable barrels. With rising uncertainty around global shipping routes, WTI has effectively gained a “security premium,” narrowing and even reversing its usual discount to Brent.
