by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:
The rising wedge in Bitcoin broke hard. Expect another bear market.
Bitcoin Technical Chart Analysis
- Rising wedge broke sharply lower, as expected.
- A head-and shoulder pattern formed, with a weak right shoulder.
- Bitcoin is right on support now at ~75,000.
- The implied target of a break is ~(75,000 – (126,000 – 75,000)) = ~25,000. There is long-term support at 25,000.
- There is intermediate support at ~54,000. I would expect a bounce there. But a drop to 54,000 would only be a 60 percent decline.
- An 80 percent or greater decline is more typical for a bitcoin bear market. That’s the 25,000 level again.
- An 87 percent decline, hardly unusual, would take bitcoin to 15,000.
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📊 Bitcoin Market Cycles
💚 Bull Markets
Marked in green on the chart
Historically last over 1,000 days
Unfold within the long-term upward channel 🚀🔴 Bear Markets
Marked in red on the chart
Historically last around 1 year ⏳
Sharp and fast corrections, but shorter than bull… pic.twitter.com/kVgg3EDO4t— Crypto ₿ Mode (@KryptoTatko) February 2, 2026
Ten Key Bitcoin Fundamental Points
- The bitcoin “Store of Value” trade has fundamentally broken in two. Unlike gold, which is mined with energy, but then remains “gold” regardless of how much mining energy is expended, bitcoin requires continual energy expenditure to maintain the bitcoin network.
- Maintaining a digital ledger requires a constant injection of ordered energy.
- The miners are currently doing the same amount of work for 27% less revenue. They have billions in sunk capex, and as long as bitcoin remains above the marginal cash cost of mining (~$85K), they will keep mining. This, in itself, is nothing new. It has always been the case that mining has periods of unprofitability.
- The difference this time is that bitcoin miners are no longer using “surplus” energy.
- AI datacenters pay 3-4x the revenue per kilowatt as bitcoin mining — and the miners are switching.
