Monkeypox: The Pandemic They Tried and Failed to Make Happen

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by Dr Roger Watson, Daily Sceptic:

No sooner had the COVID-19 ‘pandemic’ subsided than, in 2022, the monkeypox ‘pandemic’ came into view, global health officials waving graphs, emergency declarations and, inevitably, vaccine contracts. The parallels with early 2020 were so obvious that they hardly needed repeating: ‘outbreaks’, ‘containment’, isolation periods, R values, variants (in breaking news, the WHO has reported a new recombinant variant of monkeypox: one case in the UK and one in India, but fears there may be more unreported cases, naturally), and the sense that the public must be coached, firmly, into behaving as if a handful of cases were the opening credits of the next apocalypse.

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An outbreak in search of some numbers

Early on, the UK was ‘ramping up efforts’, people were advised to isolate for 21 days (the maximum incubation period), and Belgium reportedly flirted with mandatory isolation. The NHS advice was comparatively low-key, and even some US voices suggested this was not the ‘next Covid’. But the calm did not survive long.

The problem for the doom-mongers was that monkeypox refused to cooperate. It did not spread like wildfire and it did not fill hospitals. Reports from the WHO spoke of suspected cases and deaths in ways that were less than transparent: more deaths than confirmed cases were reported in one summary.

Monkeypox has long been endemic in parts of West and Central Africa, and outside Africa the 2022 outbreak was heavily concentrated in a specific high-risk group: men who have sex with men. Public health agencies insisted, often with convoluted, euphemistic prose, that ‘anyone’ could be at risk, while simultaneously describing transmission driven by close physical contact, particularly sexual contact. The effort to avoid ‘stigma’ became an excuse to avoid specificity, and specificity is precisely what you need when you are giving risk information. If the disease is overwhelmingly concentrated in one behaviour-linked network, pretending otherwise does not reduce stigma; it reduces clarity.

The WHO eventually elevated monkeypox to a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, reportedly overriding the advice of its own committee. This is the modern pattern: declare an emergency first, then reverse-engineer the ‘imperative’ to justify it. Meanwhile, the global health ecosystem – newsletters, professional outlets, NGOs, ‘law institutes’ and the usual alphabet-soup agencies – produced headlines about “unprecedented spread” and “urgent coordinated action”.

Micromanaging private life did not start with monkeypox, but monkeypox shows how quickly it returns once an ‘emergency’ is declared. For example, the CDC’s “safer sex” advice issued guidance to “masturbate at least six feet away from your partner”.

The vaccines: a call to arms

Once you have declared an emergency, you need a product. In this story the products were chiefly smallpox-derived vaccines: JYNNEOS (also known as Imvanex/Imvamune, sometimes described as MVA‑BN), LC16 and ACAM2000. The CDC itself noted that clinical efficacy and effectiveness data for monkeypox disease were limited, yet orders rolled in anyway, including large US purchases. Children were even floated as targets after a tiny number of paediatric cases. Once you have warehouses of doses, you need arms.

As with Covid, the numbers reported for monkeypox vaccine effectiveness depended on the public not understanding basic arithmetic. Figures like “85% effective” or estimates that JYNNEOS is “66 to 89% effective after two doses” were reported. These are almost always relative risk reductions (RRR): how much less likely a vaccinated person is to become infected compared with an unvaccinated person in the same setting.

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