by Leo Hohmann, Leo’s Newsletter:
Trump was spooked by Russia’s commitment to help Iran this time around, but will he redraw his battle plan for a ‘bigger’ operation as suggested by Lindsey Graham, risking WWIII in the process?
President Donald Trump reportedly called off the planned invasion of Iran Wednesday when, during a meeting of his National Security Council, his advisers could not guarantee him a quick and decisive victory over Iran’s Islamic regime.
But we see no evidence that the U.S. has pulled back assets from the region and an attack could still take place at some point.
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You would have thought Trump would have met with his advisers and got their military assessment before he publicly told the Iran protesters to keep protesting because “help is on the way,” but that’s just Donald Trump. He can’t control his mouth and in this case it likely got people killed. They thought help was going to arrive in their hour of need, when they were most vulnerable, and it didn’t. Trump changed his mind.
Countries had called home their international staff in Tehran and the region. Military assets were moved into place. The propaganda war was in full swing, whipping up support for the war here at home through social media and various news outlets on the right, left and center.
Reports were that the U.S. attack on Iran was “imminent,” likely to come within 24 hours.
But the perceived momentum hit a brick wall sometime Wednesday afternoon when Trump made a comment that it appears the regime had stopped shooting protesters. Trump made another post today, Friday, saying he respects the fact that the Iranian regime has canceled all scheduled hangings.
A strong warning from the Russians may also have triggered second thoughts in Trump. After Trump promised the Iran protesters “help is on the way,” the Russian foreign ministry said any U.S. military intervention in Iran would bring “disastrous consequences.” That’s code for World War III.
Again, this doesn’t mean the war won’t happen. In fact, I’d be surprised if it didn’t. The U.S. simply wasn’t prepared for a full-scale invasion and the likely onset of World War III, so it postponed doing anything for right now.
The Trump administration has been forced to come up with a new battle plan if they really want a regime change in Iran, and I believe they do. Trump and Netanyahu know their window of opportunity might soon close. In fact, it may have already closed and any new attack plan could result in horrific bloodshed, drawing Russia and perhaps China and others into the war.
But if there’s one thing we’ve learned about Trump, he likes to score wins and the more dramatic the better. Easy in-and-out wins. Even if the wins are more perception than reality, he will claim total credit and run a victory lap. Iran offered him no opportunity to come out as the clear winner so he backed off until a more attractive deal can be placed in front of him. Eventually, his ego will not allow him to back down. He will attack Iran. And Iran will be a much stiffer challenge than what Americans encountered in the Iraq war in 2003.
