by Gary Tanashian, Gold Seek:
NFTRH 891 excerpt: Silver & Silver/Gold ratio lead a holiday event
Excerpted from the November 30th edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole:
Silver, Silver/Gold & Party Time
Well, it happens. There will be times when my favored scenarios do not play out. In the current case, one of three possibilities (one of two that were favored) is disqualified and it is entirely possible – with holiday seasonal caveats – that the least favored case will play out. Allow me to dive deeper and review the options.
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- Broad correction continues (incl. precious metals), finds a hard bottom significantly lower prior to a face ripper of a rally. DISQUALIFIED
- Correction is all done and the anticipated holiday party has already begun. This had been the least favored. If this option were to unfold, it was expected to be shorter and less intense than a recovery rally from option 1. IN PROGRESS but holiday caveats aside, the impulsiveness (of silver, especially) suggests power and potential FOMO incoming.
- Correction is all done and the precious metals lead the whole mess higher, continuing the bull market in the PMs and targeting SPX (nominal) measurement of 7400 before stocks under-perform and a potential “inflation trade” rotates in. VIABLE
That would be a representation of the 1970s, per the chart above. I had expected it to manifest sometime in 2026, but it is possible that internals rotations toward the “inflation trade” will start sooner. Reference recent articles (and recent work in NFTRH):
Commodities and the Next Major Macro Phase (11.16.25)
A Look Ahead As Gold Stocks Resume Rally, Broad Market Shakes Off Mini Correction (11.26.25)
You may know I can be a cautious sort. But keeping in mind that it is the holidays and market signals are not what they will be for most of a given year, option 3 did take a step forward. However, it will be wise to keep in mind that after this profitable year, many people may be tempted to take profits pushed into the 2026 tax year, after January 1st.
But today’s signals are electing the year-end bull case (Captain Obvious) and holidays or not, our task is to interpret, manage and profit from it. Per an NFTRH+ update (password protected) on 11.26.25:
I don’t want to use holiday seasonals or any other excuse. In being open to, even favoring a hard decline to clear the sentiment pipes, if the Silver/Gold ratio takes out its double top, the party is back on, sooner rather than later and one of my favored scenarios will have proven wrong.
