by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:
With just three weeks to go before 2025 draws to a close, let’s check in on both of our precious metals and try to get a handle on where prices are headed into year end and the first quarter of 2026.Let’s start with gold, where it has been a fantastic year…and that’s a bit unusual. Why? Because as you can see below in this handy table from Ronnie Stoeferle and his team at Incrementum, after a 25% up year, you can generally expect a flat-to-down year to follow. Not in 2025, however!
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What’s happening that makes 2025 so unusual for gold? A number of things. Central bank demand continues to underpin the market, but most importantly, it seems as if large institutions and hedge funds are “front-running” events that are pending for 2026. What events are those? Please see this post from late October for further speculation: https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/gold-silver-prices-in-2026-spot-price-analysis
Ever since the initial breakout to all-time highs in early March of 2024, the gold price has been tracing out a steady pattern of 15-20% rallies that are followed by 2-4 month periods of consolidation. You can see this progression on the weekly chart below.
That chart clearly suggests that the next breakout is coming, likely in the next 3-5 weeks. Following the pattern, the next 15-20% should take price to near or above $5000/ounce. And what might spark that next rally? A number of factors, but the seasonality for a late December and January rally is certainly on our side, as you can see in this chart from StoneX.
We’ll see how it all plays out, but the signs certainly point to a year-end and early 2026 rally in the gold price. But what about silver? It just made new all-time highs last week, so should we expect it to tag along when gold moves higher? Yes, of course. But what might be the catalyst?
First of all, as we wrote last week, the silver price is currently rallying due to a number of factors, chief among them momentum-chasing CTA funds that are buying the COMEX futures. However, dwindling stockpiles in Shanghai and London are also playing a role. These are long-term trends that bear close monitoring in the weeks and months ahead.
That said, I once again implore you to ignore the current noise about some kind of imminent COMEX default. Yes, the collapse of the digital derivative and fractional reserve pricing scheme is inevitable, but I can assure you that it’s not starting on COMEX this month. As the “delivery month” of Dec25 COMEX silver continues, please allow me to provide some context to the current pace of deliveries. As you can see below, it’s nothing unusual and it’s playing out at a pace far slower than what was seen as recently as March and May of this year.
