by Matt Margolis, PJ Media:
Something strange happened in New Jersey on election night, and the numbers just don’t add up. Republican Jack Ciattarelli lost the gubernatorial race to Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill by a stunning 56% to 43% margin, a blowout that left pollsters scratching their heads and conservatives asking hard questions about what really went down in the Garden State.
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This was supposed to be a competitive race. Trump only lost the state by six points a year prior, and, if you were following this race, you know that Ciattarelli had momentum heading into Election Day, picking up endorsements from local Democrats and labor unions along the way.
This was the only gubernatorial contest where the GOP had a realistic shot at flipping a seat, and the polls suggested it was within reach. And now Quantus Insights, one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2024 elections, is asking some uncomfortable questions.
“Our first September Labor Day poll showed Sherrill +10,” Quantus Insights wrote in a lengthy post on X. “By late September, after debates, campaign controversies, and the Kirk assassination, everything changed. The race tightened fast. More Republicans entered the likely electorate and independents started breaking for Ciattarelli.”
The post continued:
We confirmed this again in late October: Sherrill +3 from a random sample of 100,000 NJ voters showing Republicans fired up and turning out. However, the Democrats were holding the edge and keeping a breakout from occurring. We rather easily detected potential for a +5 to +6 Sherrill victory despite our polling showing +3.
Notably, Sherrill was only marginally improving with Hispanic voters, showing similar margins to 2024. While our last poll did show black voters finally swinging her way. We had Ciatt at single digit support among black voters.
Then election night happened and the results stunned nearly everyone.
