by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:
With silver prices recently making new all-time highs above $50/ounce, there’s a lot of talk about whether “this time is different” regarding a top and sharp pull back. To answer the question, let’s take a closer look at price history to see if it provides any clues.
Even if you weren’t around in 1980 or 2011, I’m certain you’ve heard the stories of doom, gloom, and years of despair that followed two failed attempts at $50 silver. I was just 14 years old in 1980 so the action in silver that year wasn’t on my radar. However, I lived through 2011 and the desolation that followed so I’m keenly aware of the risks and concerns this time around. As such, the question must be asked: “Is this time different”?
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As with anything, you’ve got to use all your senses to determine whether or not one thing is different from another. How does it look? How does it feel? How does it sound? For example, using your senses, you can quickly discern a bird from a cow.
Comparing Silver Price Charts from Key Years
So how is $50 silver in 2025 different from $50 silver in 1980 or 2011? Let’s start with how it “looks”. As you can see below, the price charts are not identical. In late 1979, the silver price moved from $10 to $48 in less than four months. Even without knowing the Hunt Brothers story, any savvy market observer would not be surprised by what followed as price fell back to $10 over the next two months.
Silver – Weekly Candlestick Price Chart
The price action in late 2010 into early 2011 was reminiscent of 1979 but the rally didn’t play out as quickly. As you can see below, price moved from $18 to $48 over the course of eight months. However, like 1980, price was back to $26 four months later.
Silver – Weekly Candlestick Price Chart
So what about today? Does the current chart of silver look the same as 1980 or 2011? Yes, you can see where price has moved from $34 to $54 in four months and, yes, you can see the sharp pullback of two weeks ago. However, the run up in price is not nearly the same percentage, and at least thus far, the pull back isn’t either.
