by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money:
Is gold about to make its next major move? In this August edition of the monthly Precious Metals Projection, Craig Hemke of Sprott Money speaks with Chris Vermeulen about the critical turning point in markets. With stocks showing signs of weakness and gold nearing a technical breakout, Chris breaks down the charts, seasonality, and sentiment driving gold prices and silver prices.
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Seasonality of Gold Prices
Craig Hemke opened the August discussion by noting the long-term seasonality of gold prices and how the August–September period has historically been favorable for the precious metal. He highlighted that while COMEX gold tends to slow into October and November, it often resumes strength in December and January. Chris Vermeulen agreed that the market is at a critical turning point. Despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ being near all-time highs, his technical analysis revealed underlying weakness and a “trend reversal.”
Chris described the current rally as a “camouflage move” where the Magnificent Seven tech stocks are pulling indices upward, masking broader market weakness. Drawing parallels to 2007, he explained how gold is now “the number one asset class again” and poised for a move similar to that period — when gold rallied 37% as stocks fell 20%. Vermeulen believes gold has about “a 20% upside rally” ahead, with potential to break far beyond that level.
Both Hemke and Vermeulen pointed out that sentiment is shifting — with many investors now “giving up on thinking the market’s going to go down” and piling into stocks. This, they warned, could be the “last hurrah” before a correction.
Why Buy Silver Now?
When turning to silver and silver miners, Chris admitted the segment has been “the beating dog of the sector” — often sparking hope only to disappoint. Yet, he believes “there’s never been a better time for precious metals,” as both gold and silver charts point to imminent breakouts. He noted that silver miners, represented by the SILJ ETF, are “tapping on the door to break out” despite years of resistance.
Chris explained that while silver spot price movements tend to be volatile, the sector could rally strongly once gold begins its move. He believes silver might lag gold slightly but will likely follow with substantial upside. However, he cautioned that miners might have already made their “catch-up move” and that the next primary momentum could come from physical metals themselves.
Craig and Chris discussed how in prior cycles, once gold prices surged, silver’s percentage gains often outpaced gold’s. The logic, Chris argued, is that silver markets are smaller and more easily influenced by new buying waves. In his technical outlook, silver’s noisy chart will need a decisive breakout to signal sustained upside, but the backdrop is strong for that to occur in the near term.
Gold Spot Price
Chris brought up the Sprott Physical Gold Trust chart, emphasizing that gold has been forming a “series of bull flags” and is now in what he called “the final bull flag” — potentially pushing prices to $4,100 or higher. On futures charts, gold has already hit new all-time highs, but during regular trading hours, it remains just under resistance.
