from Birch Gold Group:
$3,500 gold is just the beginning. Some experts are predicting $6,000… others say $55,000 is “fair value.” What’s fueling these extreme predictions – and how reasonable are they, really? Here’s what you need to know before the next big move…
Your News to Know rounds up the most important stories about precious metals and the overall economy. This week, we’ll cover:
- How high? Frank Holmes calls for $6,000 gold…
- …while another expert says $25,000-$55,000 is historical fair value price!
TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/
- Dominic Frisby’s many reasons not to sell gold as prices heat up
- Diversifying with gold rapidly becoming “the new normal”
It’s time to entertain some of the more extreme gold price forecasts
It is a strange time when $3,700 or even $4,500 gold price predictions don’t feel satisfying.
It’s a testament to just how far currency debasement has gone. A large part of the market has already incorporated these targets into their models…
So we must look elsewhere. We have to go higher. And, as it turns out, we don’t need to look far at all.
There are plenty of established industry figures that are calling for anywhere between $6,000 to $55,000 gold. (That’s not a typo.) These aren’t insane baseless claims, either, but numbers backed with ample research from mainstream sources.
On what you might call the lower end, we have Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors and Executive Chairman of Hive Digital Technologies, expecting gold to hit $6,000 in the next four years.
Holmes is focused heavily on President Trump’s administration and how it translates to gold prices.
Holmes bases his target almost exclusively on trade wars, tariffs and the Trump administration’s insistence to balance trade more in favor of the U.S.
If tariffs go rise to 25% overall (a level which Trump seems to be targeting), the dollar has to fall 25%, and gold in turn rises 25%.
In reality, we could see even more upside in such a scenario, as most of gold’s run over the past two years happened amid a stronger dollar.
Gold’s price explosion not-so-coincided with the first real slump in the U.S. dollar index we’ve seen in two years, so one can only imagine how far a 25% fall in the dollar could take gold.
Holmes argues that China is making a concentrated effort to weaken global reliance on the U.S. dollar. Well, that’s no secret – in fact, it’s official BRICS policy, and what the Rio Reset is all about.
As for the Federal Reserve, he expects real rates to dip into negative territory once again, along with money printing, bailouts and the typical disastrous response to financial crises we’ve grown accustomed to.
Another interesting forecast last week came from Tavi Costa, Partner & Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, who says $25,000 to $55,500 is gold’s fair value.
He bases this prediction on how gold reserves compare to issued debt. Right now, the market price of U.S. gold reserves are about 2% of total government debt, a steep fall from 17% in the 1970s and 40% in the 1940s. It’s a slightly different take on the gold revaluation that we’ve been hearing about recently, and while it’s interesting, I’m not entirely certain it’s reasonable…
On the other hand, if we look at the 2001 gold price surge in comparison to today’s price action, well, gold has a whole lot farther to run:
That’s right. Gold’s price rose more than 12x over the last 24 years. If the present resembles the past? Well, do your own math because I’m not certain you’d believe mine.
Costa makes some other good points though – he believes the U.S. dollar has peaked in value, overvalued compared to other currencies. Critics will be quick to point out this is a ticking time bomb.
He says that a weakening of the U.S. dollar would act as a signal to a lot of asset classes, namely gold and silver, essentially echoing what Holmes has said above.
We may be seeing the early beginnings of that already, although silver, as always, waits in the wings still.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – with the gold to silver ratio at or near 100, silver is a more compelling asset right now.
Dominic Frisby: Nobody should be taking profits on gold right now
Dominic Frisby tends to have some insightful commentary on the precious market regardless of how he oscillates between bullish and bearish views.
Right now, he is decidedly bullish, noting that gold has already hit 27 all-time-high prices this year. In doing so, it looks to somehow bury the wild price action of 2024 as if it never existed.
Gold hit $3,500 last week before pulling back, but we have not really made it a highlight of our own weekly coverage.
Why? Because a week ago, we said that everyone appears to be treating $3,500 as a given, and that became true a couple of days later.
These days, analysts are going after bigger price targets, while we ourselves are trying to raise awareness about other issues.
For instance:
“It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold,” says Frisby.
“This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it’s pretty incredible: how we’ve all been lied to!”
So much for gold tracking the price of purchasing power. Frisby calls gold fully valued, yet abnormal. Silver has yet to go anywhere even though silver production is actually dwindling.
In other words, there is plenty more room to go up. He has compiled plenty of reasons to urge any would-be speculator to back off from the idea of profit-taking in the gold market.
As he says, you might be living in the U.K. Frisby’s notes often have a humorous tone, and this one is no different, but with very real things to think about in the background. Being from across the pond himself, he says that any claim of pound strength is a lie.
Brits have had to contend with a 37% loss in purchasing power of the pound sterling over just five years. As he goes over the many reasons not to store wealth in the pound as a Brit, we can’t help but notice they apply equally to the U.S. dollar, the euro, and any other currency we can think of.
There is also China’s retail market. In it, Frisby sees a billion prospective buyers who will only sell if their local markets stabilize, which won’t happen. He says that China officially bought closer to 50 tons of gold vs. the reported five tons last month, with plenty of follow-up for those wanting more of his analysis.
