by Susan Duclos, All News Pipeline:
The only time Democrats, including the media, aren’t whining like babies missing their pacifiers over America’s election system using Electoral College votes, is when they are favored in the electoral college.
As predicted right here at ANP, the “Thank heavens Biden withdrew” bounce that benefitted Kamala Harris, as well as the minor DNC Convention bounce, has begun to deflate for Harris, and while she is still showing a slight lead in national polling, Trump is ahead in state polling, and gaining ground in swing state polling.
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This has brought back the Democrat freakout over America’s use of the Electoral College system versus “the popular vote,” which here in the good ole U.S. of A, has never been a “thing” except for Democrats to whine about when their candidate proves incapable of winning elections using the system that has been in place for more than 200 hundred years.
Using the Electoral College System prevents a minority of liberal states from determining the outcome of federal presidential elections, against the will of the majority of states.
That is just a simplified explanation because the topic of this article is the freakout now that Nate Silver, the liberal polling guru who created Five Thirty Eight and now does his work through the “Silver Bulletin,” is showing Donald Trump, the Republican nominee of winning every swing state. Those states will determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in November.
The interesting part of Silver’s findings using his models, is that Harris is actually doing worse since the DNC, rather than better.
Here are some key quotes from the Silver Bulletin:
• The problem for Harris is that Donald Trump has been gaining on her in our polling averages, too — at least in the most important Electoral College states. If, say, Harris had gained 1 point, when the convention bounce adjustment was expecting her to gain 2 points, that would look like more of a rounding error in the model. Instead, though, she’s actually losing ground since the start of the convention in swing state polls.
• In fact, relative to the start of the DNC, Harris has lost ground in 6 of these 7 states. (Again, there’s no convention bounce adjustment in these polling averages at all; that comes at a later stage.) The notable exception is Georgia, which perhaps makes sense: it had been surprising before that Harris was polling better in North Carolina than in the Peach State. And her numbers are essentially unchanged in Nevada, although with just 6 electoral votes, it only has a 3 percent chance of being the tipping-point state.
But in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump has gained about a point. And the polling average has broken slightly more sharply than that against Harris in North Carolina and Arizona.
• Setting all of that aside, I’m going to say something I know our Harris-voting subscribers won’t be happy about: the new numbers look a bit more realistic than the pre-DNC ones given how the country wound up voting in 2016 and 2020.
The following chart says it all.
Hence the whining from the predictable “we want the popular vote” crowd as well as those attacking Silver for his models, which actually just curate polling data.
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