The Current Rise in Mortgage Rates Is Unlike Anything in History

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by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:

In percentage terms, and that matters to borrowers used to cheap rates, the current rise in mortgage rates is unprecedented.

Largest Mortgage Rate Swings in History 

  • In 18 months, the year-over-year percentage change in rates went from -27.8 percent to positive 80.4 percent, a swing of 108.2 percentage points.
  • The December 2020 decline of 27.8 percent is the largest decline in history.
  • The June 2022 year-over-year rise of 80.4% is the largest rise in history.

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Monthly Average Mortgage Rate Percent 

Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish

Highest Rate in 11 Years 

5.37 percent is not a high rate historically, but it is the highest rate since 5.42 percent in June 2009.

Moreover, one cannot get anything close to that rate now. That’s a Freddie Mac weekly average rate from early June and it is very stale.

Mortgage News Daily Rates 

Chart from Mortgage News Daily annotations by Mish.

Chart from Mortgage News Daily annotations by Mish.

As of June 21, the average mortgage rate is 6.07 percent, up from 3.26 percent a year ago.

According to Freddie Mac, the annual average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%. Rates have now doubled.

New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

On May 24, I reported New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions

New home sales have peaked this cycle and the bottom is nowhere in sight.

Read More @ MishTalk.com