Food, Rent, and Energy Prices are Totally Outside the Fed’s Control

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by Mish Shedlock, Mish Talk:

Let’s discuss food prices and other factors totally outside the Fed’s control.

On Wednesday the BLS released CPI data. For overall details, please see CPI Year-Over-Year Drops a Bit, But Is it Believable?

This post is a closer look at food prices.

Year-Over-Year Seven Categories 

  • Cereals and Bakery: 10.3%

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  • Meat, Poultry, Fish, Eggs: 14.3%
  • Dairy: 9.1%
  • Fruits and Vegetables: 7.8%
  • Other Food At Home: 11.0%
  • Beverages: 9.8%
  • Food Away From Home: 7.2%

CPI With a Spotlight on Food 

CPI With a Spotlight on Food 2022-04

Chart Details 

  • CPI: 8.3%
  • CPI Excluding Food: 8.1%
  • Food: 9.4%
  • Food at Home: 10.8%
  • Food and Beverage: 9.0%

Food Components in the CPI

Food Components in the CPI 2022-04

Weight Details 

  • Total Weight: 13.361%
  • At Home Weight: 8.245%
  • Away From Home: 5.116%

These percentages tend to change every month. More specifically, the weights of everything typically change every month.

I covered shelter in my previous post but let’s have another look.

CPI Shelter 

CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change NSA RENT 2022-04

Key Shelter Points

  • Year-over-year rent was only up 3.8% in January and 4.8% in April.
  • Year-over-year OER was only up 4.1% in January and 4.8% in April.
  • OER is 23.816% of the CPI in April.
  • Rent is 7.278% of the CPI in April.

OER is the mythical price one would pay to rent one’s own house from himself, unfurnished, and without utilities.

Is rent and OER only up 4.8%? If you believe that, then the CPI numbers are believable.

OER and Rent are 31.1% of the CPI.

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