It Never Ends

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by Bob Rinear, The International Forecaster:

First off, what is inflation? We all recognize it as increasing prices when we buy things. The spinner heads will tell you that no, according to the dictionary, inflation is an increase in the money supply. So let me ask, do we have the dictionary description of what inflation is? Let’s see:

Normally characterized by slow, steady growth, the U.S. money supply has grown 20% from $15.33 trillion at the end of 2019 to $18.3 trillion at the end of July.

Well dang! It looks to me like there’s been a quite hefty increase in the money supply, what says you? You agree?

TRUTH LIVES on at https://sgtreport.tv/

Earlier this month, Jay Powell had to justify his existence, and he does that by spewing baloney to appease the stock gods. Let me share something I grabbed off of CNBC.

In its most recent policy statement, issued in December, the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said it would keep an accommodative stance until it sees “substantial further progress” toward its employment and inflation goals.

On the employment mandate, Powell stressed the Fed’s new approach to inflation in which it will not raise rates even if unemployment falls below levels that historically would have been considered a warning sign for pricing pressures ahead.

“That wouldn’t be a reason to raise interest rates, unless we start to see inflation or other imbalances that would threaten the achievement of our mandate,” he said.

One such imbalance would be inflation. In recent days, a few Fed officials have cautioned that inflation could move up sooner than the central bank expects and might force the removal of some policy accommodation sooner than committee members have forecast.

“If inflation were to move up in ways that are unwelcome, we have the tools for that, and we will use them,” he said. “No one should doubt that.”

I would love to live on the planet that good old Mr. Powell lives on. Because down here on this orb we call Earth, we have true inflation, both by description and pricing.

First off, what is inflation? We all recognize it as increasing prices when we buy things. The spinner heads will tell you that no, according to the dictionary, inflation is an increase in the money supply. So let me ask, do we have the dictionary description of what inflation is? Let’s see:

Normally characterized by slow, steady growth, the U.S. money supply has grown 20% from $15.33 trillion at the end of 2019 to $18.3 trillion at the end of July.

Well dang! It looks to me like there’s been a quite hefty increase in the money supply, what says you?  You agree?

Now, what happens when all that extra money supply, is chasing the same amount of product or service?  (drum roll here) Well Dang again, it seems it forces prices higher on the stuff we buy!  Imagine that, what a coincidence!

Yet Mr. Powell and his cronies say he won’t raise interest rates until he see’s inflation.  Something tells me the poor boy needs new glasses. Maybe he needs Lazik? Because normal people see inflation all over the place.   Food is higher, energy is higher. How about housing?

House prices continue to rise in all of the country’s 20 major cities, according to Standard and Poor’s, with Phoenix posting the highest increase of 8.96% during the year to Q2 2020, followed by Seattle (6.5%), Tampa (5.89%), Charlotte (5.74%), Cleveland (5.4%), Minneapolis (5.39%), and San Diego (4.98%). More moderate house price rises were seen in Portland (4.25%), Atlanta (4.2%), Miami (4.03%), Denver (4.02%), Los Angeles (3.91%), Washington (3.54%), Boston (3.51%), Las Vegas (3.33%), Detroit (3.07%), and Dallas (3.06%). New York saw minimal house price growth of 1.67%, as well as San Francisco (1.45%), and Chicago (0.6%).

Looks like price inflation to me unless you’re in one of those Antifa laden strongholds like SanFrancisco or NY, that people are fleeing from.

Well, I’ve told you all about the best gauge of Inflation in the past, and it’s called the Chapwood Index.  What’s that you ask?  Let’s look:

Financial experts at Chapwood Investments, LLC have spent the past 4 years engaged in groundbreaking research that uncovers the real cost of living percentage increase for every major metropolitan area in the United States. Numerous organizations have attempted to reveal inaccuracies in the government Consumer Price Index (CPI) methodology by calculating alternative inflation rates. No one, until now, has ever attempted to objectively determine the real cost of living percentage increase without the influence of the flawed government model.

 

To quote the founder:

I am tired of observing people commit financial suicide… I firmly believe the government gravely underestimates the national rate of inflation—a number also plagued with bias and statistical manipulation. It is universally assumed that the government’s rate of inflation is accurate. It simply isn’t… This blind acceptance is one of the main reasons people are reliant on the government entitlement programs that are bankrupting our country. Over 50% of Americans are dependent on the government entitlement programs to get by. This is horrible… Americans that rely on this statistic are falling behind [financially] more and more every year. Individual purchasing power is sinking in quicksand, and people are unable to maintain their current lifestyle. Salaries and portfolios must increase more than the numbers reported by the CPI—more than the numbers by the Chapwood Index. That is how you keep up… It is about time someone does something about this tragedy and stands up for the people. That is why I put this together

ED BUTOWSKY

The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.

So the latest update was for the first half of 2020. The reading for the second half will probably update in a few weeks. But that’s fine, just what happened to the price of the top 500 items that people bought in the first fifteen largest cities? Let’s look:

 

  1. New York +11.9%
  2. Los Angeles +12.1%
  3. Chicago +11.1%
  4. Houston +9.2%
  5. Philadelphia 11.0%
  6. Phoenix 8.1%
  7. San Antonio 9.2%
  8. San Diego 11.6%
  9. Dallas 8.9%
  10. San Jose 12.9%
  11. Jacksonville 8.5%
  12. Indianapolis +9.4%
  13. San Francisco +12.8%
  14. Austin +10.2%
  15. Columbus +9.6%

 

Okay Mr. Powell. What part of inflation aren’t you seeing? You keep harping on this BS that you want to see sustained inflation over your magic 2% and yet here it is running from 8 to 13. Right in front of your face.

Add in housing, rent, energy, food, etc and you can see numbers in the HIGH teens. Now don’t forget, I’m just quoting the first half readings for 2020. The readings all the way back to 2016 are very similar, 8 – 12% PER YEAR. So this isn’t something new. It’s compounding. If prices in NY rose 10.8% in 2016, 11.2 in 2017, 12.6 in 2018, 12.1 in 2019 and are on track for 12.7 in 2020, doesn’t that mean prices for the stuff you normally buy are up 59% in under 5 years. No inflation Mr. Powell?

This is why there’s always more month at the end of your money. This is why you can spend 100 dollars at the grocery and still have a half empty cart. This is why half of the average person, can’t find 500 bucks if an emergency popped up. This is why we have to have women in the workforce, as single incomes don’t cut it.

By the way if you want to see all this for yourself, simply go here:

https://chapwoodindex.com/

My point of course is simple. Powell has to lie about there being no signs of inflation, or else he’d have to raise interest rates to combat it. Since he can’t do that without imploding the nation, and crashing the stock market, he has to lie. He’s the Baghdad Bob for the economy.

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