by Karl Denninger, Market Ticker:
Japan never locked down. Nor did they ever impose a mask mandate (there is no legal authority to do it.) They’ve recorded 95,138 cases and 1,694 deaths across a population of 126 million people.
We know a few things about Japan; first and foremost, they’re an incredibly hygienic population by “Western” standards, and miles ahead of any of the “turd world” nations. Bidets are common in Japanese homes. There has been a significant “second wave” of cases in Japan starting early July, mirroring what we are seeing in other temperature climates worldwide.
But — while there has been some death it’s remarkably small.
This has led many people to claim that the nation simply hasn’t had a spread of Covid and that their “social norms” protected them from the virus being transmitted between people, despite the fact that seasonal influenza has nearly 2-1/2 times the death rate in Japan as it does here in the US, and thus is an utterly illogical claim made without evidence.
This paper proves that claim to be not fantasy and illogic — rather, it is a lie.
Results: Six hundred fifteen healthy volunteers (mean + SD 40.8 + 10.0; range 19 – 69; 45.7 % female) received at least one test. Seroprevalence increased from 5.8 % to 46.8 % over the course of the summer. The most dramatic increase in SPR occurred in late June and early July, paralleling the rise in daily confirmed cases within Tokyo,
The intent of the authors was to discover why Japan has had a very low death rate. The presumption is that they had a low spread rate; that is, that if infected your odds of death were reasonably-correlated with case numbers. Therefore, testing a lot is good, contact tracing for asymptomatic people is necessary to cut down transmission and this will suppress serious disease and death.
This paper falsified that thesis. In fact, it documented the exact opposite.
You see, Japan has tried to trace symptomatic cases (and only symptomatic cases) backward. Not who you might have contacted (and then quarantine them) but the exact opposite; who gave you the symptomatic case?
They did this because the evidence was that this was a stochastic disease early on — that is, most people do not infect anyone, while a few infect many. They, in addition, ignored asymptomatic cases entirely, refusing to mass-test people and throw them in “policy jail” if positive, along with everyone they got near.
Their strategy worked.
Their alleged “positive cases” are 0.08% of the population.
Their true positive rate in Tokyo approaches 50% and while they still get cases and a few deaths they have indisputably reached suppression where logarithmic disease and death are impossible.
They allowed people who were asymptomatic to spread the disease. That produced many more asymptomatic infections which are harmless yet they build immunity in the population at large. They did this with no vaccine and without having a large number of people die.