When Will the Exploding Number of Cases Lead to More Deaths?


by Mish Shedlock, The Street:

The number of Covid-19 cases is at a new pandemic high. Deaths will follow.
The 7-day average in cases peaked on April 9 at 34,756. The number of deaths per day peaked at 2,590 eight days later.

To suggest a lag of about a week is wrong.

Key Reasons the Lag isn’t a Week

  1. States did not peak at the same time. Averaging the states together smoothed out the curve.
  2. States had different reporting methods. Some states lumped probable deaths in with known deaths.
  3. Some states purposely downplayed deaths.

If is highly likely Florida artificially and purposely undercounted Covid deaths.

The Tampa Bay Times reports Florida medical examiners were releasing coronavirus death data. The state made them stop.

When the medical examiners’ list was available, it showed more deaths than the state’s count.

The Palm Beach Post editorial says Gov. DeSantis still hiding crucial data on COVID-19 deaths from the public.

The number of cases are now too many to hide.

Fools’ Analysis

The Wrong Way

Typical Reaction to Bad Analysis 

Federal Reopening Criteria

Distorted “Real World” Methodology Explained

Distorted View of the Real  World Methodology

The proper way to compare death rates is to pay heed to state-by-state variations and lag rates.

Lag Time in Florida

New Cases va Deaths Florida 2020-06-26

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