CAUTION: Markets & Economy Seem All Too Predictable Going Into One Very Important Week


from Silver Doctors:

SD Outlook: Everybody seems so sure of the US economy & markets, but beyond the talking points there are serious problems…

Everybody is so sure of the US economy & markets just as we arrive at a very important week.

On Wednesday, the Fed concludes its 2-day FOMC meeting, which is when the Fed decides what the markets need for interest rates from now until the Fed’s next meeting.

The Fed knows best!

And too bad if you don’t like it, because it’s a matter of the Fed’s public policy to suppress interest rates and suppress them 24/7.

Everybody is so sure, for now, that the Fed’s current manipulation of interest rates will hold steady (probability from CME Group):

Furthermore, it’s pretty safe to say that over the course of the past month, a Fed “hold” on interest rates has become fully priced-in to the markets.

Additionally, there are no real market moving events from now until the Fed concludes its 2-day meeting on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. EST, so it’s not like the Fed is still undecided because of some data release.

The calendar does get interesting, however, as we move from mid-week through Friday:

We get inflation data and retail sales data, and remember, just ignore the fact that Black Friday as we know it is over, and focus on those booming online sales!

One thing that sticks out to me is 2019 has been one of those years when more and more internet e-commerce companies came on board with collecting sales tax over the internet, so I’m wondering just how much of the “booming online sales” narrative has to do with simply collecting sales tax?

Perhaps somebody can call-in to our live-stream today at 11:00 a.m. EST and break it down for us?

I think the question is valid, and I’m hard pressed for the time to research it right now.

That said, eBay only started collecting sales tax in 2019, so if “total online sales” include sales tax collected, if online sales are claimed to be, say, up 8.0%, year-over-year, are retail sales really up year-over-year, are sales flat, or, are retail sales even declining when we combine flat online sales with declining brick-and-mortar sales?

In other words, if internet sales are up because of online sales tax collection, are internet sales really up?

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, what’s your overall point today?”.

Good question.

My overall point is that everybody’s so sure in their beliefs right now, and the belief is that the global economy may be slowing down, but the US is generally doing okay.

In other words, everything, on the surface, is all too predictable right now, and because of that, it seems to me like something unpredictable in the markets or economy is about to happen.

The gold-to-silver ratio has spiked above 89:

The GSR is suggesting that we could see more weakness in silver, compared to gold, before this is all over.

I really do hope they smash silver down to a 15-handle:

It is truly amazing that idiots people are paying $120,000 for bananas duct-taped to walls, and yet we’re talking about the possibility of $15 silver in late 2019.


Gold continues to hold up much better than silver:

The wash-out may indeed come this week, and it if does, I think we could see a v-bottom down to $1400, followed by a sharp recovery.

Palladium continues to do its own thing to start the week:

We’re quickly approaching “extremely overbought” territory, and I’ve been expecting a pullback any day now.

A pullback in palladium would be uber-healthy right now if it coincided with gold, silver and platinum playing catch-up.

Platinum’s had a rough time of it lately, but the bottom hasn’t fallen out of platinum like with silver:

Platinum’s technicals are signaling platinum could move much lower before becoming “extremely oversold”.

The “correction” in the precious metals will end soon, however, if crude oil keeps climbing:

We could be talking about $60 oil by the end of the week.

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, why do you say the correction will be over in gold & silver if crude oil keeps climbing?”.

Good question.

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